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Bitcoin fell to the mid-$76,000 range as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and U.S. long-term interest rates climbed. The Houthis’ capture of the strategic port of Mocha and Saudi Arabia’s declining oil output pushed crude prices up, while a stronger-than-expected PPI lifted September rate-hike odds to 70%, accelerating the risk-off move. Market focus has now shifted to tonight’s CPI release, which could trigger further downside if hot or a sharp rebound if soft. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index held at 70 in greed territory, signaling resilient investor sentiment.
Key Elements
Cryptocurrency markets traded lower on the 11th, with Bitcoin (BTC) slipping to the mid-$76,000 range (approximately ¥12 million). The risk-off tone was driven by surging oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions and rising U.S. long-term interest rates. Market attention is now squarely focused on tonight’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which could significantly shift expectations for a rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Oil Rally and Rising Yields Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin was capped at $82,000 (approximately ¥13 million)—its May recovery high—last Friday before losing momentum following stronger-than-expected jobs data. Over the weekend, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked U.S. naval vessels, prompting U.S. forces to strike three Iranian tankers in retaliation. As oil prices climbed at the start of the week, BTC gradually drifted lower within its range.
BTC bounced back to the $77,000 (approximately ¥12 million) level on Tuesday and showed strength near $79,000 (approximately ¥12 million) on Wednesday, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the ongoing exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran, and two consecutive business days of outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) capped the upside.
Subsequently, reports that the Houthis had seized the strategic port of Mocha near the Red Sea exit and that Saudi Arabia’s August oil production had fallen to its lowest level since 1990 sent crude prices surging from the $95 (approximately ¥15,000) range to the $104 (approximately ¥16,000) range. The Producer Price Index (PPI) release then lifted September rate-hike odds to 70%. Rising U.S. long-term yields added further pressure, pushing BTC down to the mid-$76,000 range.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.78% to 4.96% over the past two days. In addition to higher oil prices and elevated September rate-hike expectations following the stronger PPI, the U.S. Treasury’s buyback operation—which saw only $5.1 billion (approximately ¥790 billion) accepted against a planned $6 billion (approximately ¥930 billion)—further fueled the rise in yields. However, some market observers noted that the shortfall stemmed from bidders’ asking prices being too high for the Treasury to accept, suggesting the market reaction may have been somewhat overdone.
Tonight’s CPI as the Key Inflection Point
Tonight’s CPI release will be a critical indicator for gauging the September FOMC outcome. Rakuten Wallet’s daily report notes that a hotter print would cement expectations for a September hike and likely trigger further downside, while a softer reading could spark a sharp rebound.
The PPI headline figure came in just 0.1% above expectations, while core month-over-month actually came in 0.1% below forecasts. However, the 5.4% level itself may have had a psychological impact on markets. PPI reflects corporate input costs, and goods prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand rather than costs alone. If demand is weak, CPI will not rise.
The report also analyzes that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, in his true intentions, would prefer not to hike rates before the midterm elections, but is deliberately adopting a hawkish stance to maintain credibility with markets and FOMC members. If CPI comes in above expectations, the Fed would be forced into a rate hike, exerting downward pressure on BTC.
Conversely, the report points out that if core growth comes in below expectations and a hold is supported by Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams, BTC could rebound sharply given that markets have already priced in a 70% probability of a hike.
Investor Sentiment Remains Bullish
Meanwhile, overall market sentiment remains resilient. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 70 from the previous reading of 66, maintaining greed territory. Analysts are focused on whether the current pullback represents a healthy correction or a precursor to more serious market pressure.
Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range over the past two weeks while defending support near $77,000. Although intensifying Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher and prompted some investors to reduce allocations to risk assets, the market’s ability to absorb sharp fluctuations suggests investors are reassessing Bitcoin’s value under current conditions.
From a technical standpoint, BTC remains above its key exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating that the broader bullish trend remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels to approximately 58, suggesting cooling buying pressure but still in mildly positive territory. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows widening negative momentum, signaling fading upside strength.
In the near term, $77,000 is acting as a support line, with the 200-day EMA at approximately $72,900 (approximately ¥11 million) and the 50-day EMA at approximately $72,800 (approximately ¥11 million) forming a closely clustered demand zone. The 100-day EMA at approximately $70,700 represents a major support level; a clear break below this threshold could signal a significant shift in Bitcoin’s trend.
Clarity Act Lacks Ethics Provisions
On the regulatory front, Treasury Secretary Bessent called for passage of the Clarity Act ahead of the committee vote scheduled for the 15th, but the amendment published by Senator Lummis does not include the ethics provisions that had been a focal point, making Democratic support highly unlikely. The bill would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, and the outcome of the vote could have sector-wide implications.
Looking ahead, the CPI result and the FOMC decision will be the primary drivers for cryptocurrency markets including Bitcoin. If inflation data justifies rate cuts, Bitcoin could see renewed upside opportunities. Conversely, strong data would reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and heighten further downside risk.
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Source: finance.biggo.com