Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Nears Record Low, But ETF Buyers Sit On Paper Losses

Bitcoin(BTC) holders cut profit-taking in September, pushing a key selling-pressure gauge to 7 basis points a day from 16, one of the lowest readings on record.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio fell to 7 basis points a day, down from 16 at the August peak.
• Long-term holders produced 47% of realized profit this month, against 88% a month earlier.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF buyers sit below an aggregate breakeven near $86,000, with paper losses around $3.9 billion.

Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Hits Rare Low

Analytics firm Glassnodepublished the reading in its weekly on-chain newsletter on Sept. 9, in a report that drew on blockchain observations collected through Sept. 7.

The ratio adds up the profits and losses that investors realize on-chain, then divides that total by Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. Low prints usually mark accumulation phases and macro market bottoms, according to the firm, rather than the heavy distribution that defines late-cycle tops, when older coins move at scale.

The gauge sat at 16 basis points in late August, when Bitcoin rose above $80,000 for the first time in months. Long-term holders, wallets that leave coins untouched for at least six months, produced 47% of realized profit this month, down sharply from 88% at that August peak.

Glassnode Flags Bitcoin ETF Losses

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund investors return to aggregate profit only at $86,000, Glassnode said, and the market has now closed below that level for 229 straight sessions. Paper losses across those funds currently run near $3.9 billion. Roughly 1.07 million Bitcoin bought between $83,000 and $86,000 still hangs above the current price, and that block has barely shrunk over the past month.

“The sellers this month are recent buyers, and even they are selling less,” the firm wrote. A lower ratio does not mean the volume of Bitcoin reaching exchanges has halved, analysts cautioned, and spot cumulative volume delta stayed negative on Sept. 8, when sellers outweighed buyers.

Bitcoin Price Swings Since August

Bitcoin gained about 25% in August, then gave back part of that advance and traded near $78,000 on Thursday, capped by resistance running from $80,000 to $82,000. That recovery started after the price bounced off the $60,000 area earlier this year and later reclaimed $67,000 and the $72,000 to $74,000 zone. September’s largest profit-taking day, Sept. 3, was under half the size of August’s spike.

Earlier tops looked nothing like this one.

At the July 2025 and October 2025 highs, the same gauge spiked to 35 and 23 basis points as older coins moved in size and pushed realized profits sharply higher, well above the current reading. Only a small share of days in the past year has printed a lower reading than today. A sustained move back above 16 basis points would signal that August-sized sellers have returned to the market.

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Source: yellow.com