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Bitcoin has surged about 24 percent over the past week to near $79,000, but the rally has been far from one in which altcoins rise strongly alongside it.
On Aug. 25, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that market funds were concentrated in bitcoin rather than altcoins. As a result, bitcoin’s dominance climbed toward this year’s highs.
The market structure also showed a clearer bitcoin uptrend. It is typical for cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin to show higher volatility, but that pattern was weak this week.
Ethereum rose about 27 percent over the same period to above $2,450, showing relatively strong momentum among altcoins. But the Total3 index, which tracks the market excluding bitcoin and ethereum, cooled after an early surge and is now around $753 billion. It was down on the week even as bitcoin neared $80,000.
The Total2 index, which represents the overall altcoin market, was similar. It jumped more than 24 percent from Aug. 19 to 22 to regain the $1 trillion level, but later gave back some of those gains. It is now around $1.05 trillion and has fallen over the past two days even as bitcoin kept rising.
That trend is more clearly seen in bitcoin dominance, which is bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation. If altcoins had actually led the market, that ratio would have fallen, but it instead climbed to about 61 percent this week before adjusting to around 59 percent.
An indicator of whether the market has entered an altcoin season still points to bitcoin’s edge. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index measures how many of the top 100 coins have outperformed bitcoin over the past 90 days. A reading above 75 is considered altcoin season, but the current figure remains at 46. That means many top altcoins are still delivering weaker performance than bitcoin.
The direct trigger for the rally began with changes in the U.S. policy environment. The U.S. Treasury said last Wednesday it would double the size of its long-term Treasury buybacks per operation to $4 billion from $2 billion, effective Sept. 9. The move aims to support demand and lower borrowing costs by having the government buy back its own debt. After the announcement, the dollar weakened and investors increased bitcoin investment as an inflation hedge.
Political factors also supported bitcoin’s strength. U.S. President Donald Trump met with cryptocurrency industry executives at the White House and urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act. The bill sets out which U.S. regulator will oversee which cryptocurrencies. Expectations that regulatory jurisdiction could be clarified influenced market sentiment.
A short squeeze also played a major role in the price rise. When bitcoin broke above $70,000, traders who had bet on declines had to buy back positions to absorb losses, and that buying helped spur further gains. Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacey Zhang (레이시 장) estimated that more than $4 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated over 2 to 3 days. That suggests the market was influenced not only by spot buying but also by the unwinding of derivatives positions.
In the short term, whether bitcoin breaks through $80,000 is seen as the next inflection point. If bitcoin rises sustainably above $80,000, it could head into a $82,000 to $87,000 range, but if a pullback emerges, the $75,000 to $76,000 zone was presented as a key retracement area. The market is therefore expected to watch whether bitcoin’s strength spreads across altcoins, along with the U.S. Senate’s planned mid-September reconsideration of the Clarity Act.
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Yoonseo Leeyslee@d-today.co.kr
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