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Adam Livingston believes a historic transfer of Bitcoin from early holders to higher-cost investors has created the foundation for a move to $200,000.
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Bitcoin’s subdued price action resembles its late-2022 consolidation, the analyst said.
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Benjamin Cowen remains cautious, arguing that Bitcoin could fall toward $40,000.
Bitcoin’s extended period trading around $63,000 has divided analysts over whether it is getting ready to surge or preparing for another leg lower.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at approximately $63,300 at the time of writing, having remained subdued after falling almost 50% from its late-2025 record high above $124,000.
Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston believes the low-volatility environment resembles the market‘s behavior around the November–December 2022 bear-market bottom.
His bullish argument also claims that Bitcoin’s price could be preparing to surge to $200,000 and above.
But other analysts, including Benjamin Cowen, have warned that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and poor economic conditions could still drag the price toward $40,000.
Adam Livingston Bets on $200,000 Bitcoin Price
In a lengthy post on X, Livingston argued that Bitcoin’s 340-day period around six figures represented the largest “changing of the guard” in its history.
Bitcoin closed near $101,000 on Dec. 8, 2024, and was again trading at approximately $101,000 on Nov. 12, 2025.
Although the two endpoints were almost identical, Livingston said Bitcoin’s realized price increased from $38,233 to $56,194 during the period.
Realized price values each Bitcoin at the price recorded when it last moved on-chain.
According to Livingston, the 47% increase indicated that early investors were transferring coins acquired at considerably lower prices to buyers prepared to commit fresh capital near $100,000.
Livingston said this process effectively “recapitalized” the network.
Despite Bitcoin subsequently falling toward $63,000, its realized price has remained elevated.
“If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion, $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price,” Livingston wrote.
Is Bitcoin Repeating Its 2022 Bear-Market Bottom?
Livingston also compared Bitcoin’s current consolidation with its behavior following the FTX-driven market crash in November 2022.
“This stretch of extremely low Bitcoin volatility with 2 straight months of price action between $62k – $64k is quite strange,” Livingston wrote.
Bitcoin traded largely sideways around 16,000–17,000 during November and December 2022.
Source: finance.yahoo.com