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Bitcoin (BTC) could fall toward its long-term support levels before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections if a historical pattern identified by TradingShot plays out.
Notably, ahead of the November polls, Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery over the past week, at one point climbing above the $80,000 level.
As of press time, the cryptocurrency was trading at $78,379, down 1% in the last 24 hours but up 21% over the week.
At current levels, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, trading well above its 50-day SMA of $65,787 and 200-day SMA of $69,157, highlighting sustained bullish momentum.
Against this backdrop, a TradingShot analysis shared on TradingView on August 26 shows that Bitcoin declined during the three months preceding each of the last three U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, eventually bottoming near its weekly 200-week moving average or lower.
With Bitcoin rallying before being rejected at its weekly 50-week moving average (MA), TradingShot suggested November could once again find BTC trading around its weekly 200-week average.
Bitcoin trend before midterms
According to the analysis, Bitcoin has historically weakened in the three months leading up to U.S. midterm elections, often falling toward major long-term moving averages before establishing a cycle bottom.
TradingShot noted that Bitcoin has again been rejected at its weekly 50 MA, a level that has historically capped bear-market recoveries.
The analyst found that BTC bottomed near its weekly 200 MA ahead of the 2014 and 2018 elections, while the 2022 cycle saw the asset fall below that level and bottom on the weekly 350 MA.
Considering the recent surge, TradingShot suggested BTC could drift toward or below its weekly 200 MA by November, with a 2022-style decline potentially extending to the weekly 350 moving average.
At the same time, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle model may limit the downside, as the cryptocurrency is approaching a phase typically associated with the start of a new bull market rather than an extended correction.
TradingShot noted that Bitcoin has historically confirmed new bull markets only after reclaiming its weekly 50 MA.
If the historical midterm-election pattern repeats, Bitcoin could retreat toward its long-term support levels before November. However, a decisive break above the weekly 50 moving average would strengthen the case for a new bull cycle.
Although the election-cycle analysis points to potential downside, Bitcoin has experienced only a handful of U.S. midterm election cycles, limiting the sample size.
As a result, factors such as Federal Reserve policy, ETF flows, and institutional demand are likely to remain important drivers of price action in the months ahead.
Source: finbold.com