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BitcoinMarketAnalysisTop StoriesBtc PriceBitcoin Price PredictionArthur Hayes
Aug 25, 2026
3min read
byGlory Kaburu
forThe Coin Republic
Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Aug 25 after a 28% August gain, supported by US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $337.56 million on Aug 24 and reports of $1.33 billion of BlackRock client buys last week, indicating stronger institutional crypto demand and adoption. Arthur Hayes attributes the rally partly to expected US Treasury long-end buyback increases to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept 9 to Nov 4 and a possible Treasury General Account drawdown that could add dollar liquidity and favor scarce assets, but he warns of unusually wide price swings while technicals show immediate resistance near $81,237, support around $69,100 and an upside target near $95,000.
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Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price prediction centers on Hayes’s bull-market call after BTC traded above $80,000.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs added $337.56 million on Aug. 24, extending their inflow streak to six sessions.
- Treasury will raise long-end buyback caps to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9.
Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on August 25 while Arthur Hayes declared that a new bull market had started. This Bitcoin price prediction links the advance with Treasury bond buybacks and possible cash deployment from the Treasury General Account.
Hayes argues that both measures could add liquidity in dollars and favor scarce assets. Yet the policy connection is a market thesis, not an official guarantee. Fresh demand for exchange-traded funds also supported the move, separating the rally from a purely speculative surge.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Follows Break Above $80,000
The BTC price reached its highest level since mid-May Bitcoin has gained 28% during August and is heading for its strongest month since November 2024. A weaker dollar also helped demand for alternative assets, including Bitcoin and gold
The Bitcoin price prediction gained further support from spot fund flows. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted$337.56 million on August 24, based on SoSoValue data. That marked a sixth straight session of net inflows. The buying provides a measurable demand
Arthur Hayes presented a broader macro view in his August 24 essay,Same Same But Different. He said Bitcoin should benefit first from greater dollar liquidity.
Hayes also described his Maelstrom portfolio as in maximum-risk mode. Its major positions include Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi. Still, he warned that a bull market could bring unusually wide price swings.
Treasury Buybacks Now Shape Bitcoin Price Prediction
The Treasury will at least double long-end liquidity-support buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The increase applies to 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year securities. Itstarts on September 9 and runs through November 4.
Hayes views those purchases as liquidity injections that can limit pressure on long-term yields. Lower yields can reduce the relative appeal of bonds and support risk demand. Therefore, the Bitcoin price prediction depends partly on whether that transmission reaches broader markets.
The Treasury describes the operations as debt-management tools designed to improve trading in older securities. They are not Federal Reserve quantitative easing. Treasury also expects new issuance to replace purchased securities, limiting the program’s direct effect on net borrowing.
The department projects$739 billion of privately held net marketable borrowing in the third quarter. That estimate assumes a $950 billion cash balance at September’s end. Treasury said the TGA could peak near $1.05 trillion in late October.
Arthur Hayes believes a large TGA drawdown would place more cash into markets. No official plan commits the full balance to buybacks. He also raised possible yield control if the 10-year Treasury yield moves above 5%.
ETF Demand and Price Levels Guide the Next BTC Move
Institutional flows now offer a test for the bullish case.Arkham reported that BlackRock clients bought $1.33 billion of Bitcoin last week. Meanwhile, the $337.56 million daily ETF intake showed demand continued into Monday.
For the near-term Bitcoin price prediction, $81,237.94 is the immediate intraday barrier. A sustained move beyond $80,900 would expose $83,000 under the supplied trend model. Failure below $77,700 would place $74,500 back in focus.
Hayes did not attach a specific price target to his bull-market call. The supplied report places RSI at 90 and the 200-day moving average near $69,115. It identifies $69,100 as longer-term support and $95,000 as the upside target while that level holds.
Source: cryptorank.io