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Kalshi traders now price roughly a 53% chance <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/capital-b-plans-share-sale-to-acquire-up-to-376-more-bitcoin/” title=”Capital B Plans Share Sale to Acquire Up to 376 More Bitcoin”>Bitcoin falls below $72,500 during September, while the probability of a move below $75,000 is around 80%.
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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says Bitcoin’s apparent demand has turned negative again while short-term holders continue taking profits.
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Bitcoin’s $77,000 support is becoming critical, with another analyst identifying $72,000 and $69,500 as the next major downside levels if it breaks.
Bitcoin’s strong August recovery is facing an early September test as prediction market traders increasingly bet that BTC will give back part of its recent gains.
Bitcoin traded around $77,700 on Sept. 2, remaining below the $80,000 level after gaining nearly 25% during August.
Kalshi’s September-low market has now turned notably defensive. Traders assign roughly an 80% probability that Bitcoin trades below $75,000 at some point this month, while a fall below $72,500 is priced around 53%. The probability drops to about 34% for $70,000 and 14% for $65,000.
Those contracts measure whether Bitcoin touches the specified levels before the end of September. They do not mean traders expect BTC to finish the month there.
Bitcoin’s $77K Support Puts $72K Back in Play
The $72,000 area is also appearing outside prediction markets.
Frank Hepworth, founder of New Market Trading, told Forbes that $77,000 is the immediate level to watch. If Bitcoin loses it, he identified $72,000 as the next target, followed by the 200-day moving average near $69,500.
That would put Bitcoin roughly 7% below its current price and erase a larger part of the rally that carried BTC from the low-$60,000 range to above $80,000 in August.
September has historically been difficult for Bitcoin. Dow Jones Market Data shows BTC has averaged a 2.2% September decline since 2014, making it the cryptocurrency’s weakest calendar month over that period.
Technical trader Doctor Profit expects volatility but is not positioning for a lasting breakdown. He sees Bitcoin moving within a $71,000–$82,000 range, calling $71,000 the floor while arguing that $82,000 must eventually break for the rally to continue.
“Bears will become very loud in the next days,” he wrote, while stressing that he remains in spot positions accumulated around $62,000 rather than shorting the market.
CryptoQuant Analyst Warns Bitcoin Demand Is Falling
Onchain demand may be the more immediate problem.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative again while short-term holders continue realizing profits.
Source: finance.yahoo.com