Bitcoin Holds $79,000, Defying Fed Hike Fears: What Is Going On?

Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) is showing unusual resilience to rising interest rate expectations, with Wintermute Research arguing that capital may be rotating from exhausted equity trades into crypto.

Why BTC Is Among the Three Strongest Assets

Bitcoin has traded range-bound over the past week, gaining 2.5% even as macro pressures mount.

Prices briefly fell from $82,400 to below $80,000 after a strong U.S. jobs report lifted Fed rate hike odds toward 60%. However, BTC ended the week 3.45% higher.

Wintermute highlighted in its September 2026 market update that crypto took three of the strongest spots behind oil in its cross-asset comparison, while equities stalled and bonds and gold weakened.

Strong institutional demand is helping. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $987 million for the week and nearly $3.8 billion over three consecutive weeks.

Bitcoin’s bear market drawdown has also been shallower than past cycles.

About 340 days after its peak, BTC remains roughly 50% below its high, compared with declines of more than 75% at similar points in the 2018 and 2022 cycles.

What Does the Crypto-Equity DivergenceMean?

Wintermute believes the divergence could indicate capital is beginning to rotate from equities into digital assets.

The firm has argued since Bitcoin’s June low that equities needed to lose momentum before a new crypto cycle could develop.

It sees last week’s price action as the first clear evidence of that thesis.

“Capital leaving exhausted equities and a consolidating gold trade is finding its way into crypto,” Wintermute said, describing the move as a reallocation story before a macro story.

The firm stressed that slowing equity momentum does not necessarily imply a stock bear market. Instead, fading enthusiasm following the AI-driven rally could make crypto increasingly attractive at the margin.

DePIN and AI tokens have outperformed with renewed activity around Bittensor(CRYPTO: TAO), FET and Render.

$72,000 Remains a Key Level

Bitcoin’s next major macro test arrives with August CPI on Sept. 11, followed by the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting.

Wintermute remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above $72,000, calling $82,000 the immediate level bulls need to clear.

The firm would reconsider its bullish view if BTC breaks below $72,000 alongside meaningful ETF outflows.

A hotter-than-expected CPI report that pushes Fed hike odds above 70% could accelerate that reassessment.

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