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Bitcoin(BTC) must close above $81,700 to confirm a new bull market, CryptoQuant said, even as the firm described the broader market structure as bullish.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin has rallied 24% in two weeks but remains below the $81,700 level CryptoQuant says would confirm a new bull market.
- Resistance also sits at $83,600 and $88,700, while support could emerge near $70,000 and between $62,000 and $65,000.
- Long-term holders sold up to 539,000 BTC in one major supply zone, while buying about 476,000 BTC in the deeper support range.
Bitcoin Resistance Levels
Bitcoin has gained 24% over two weeks, but the rally stalled as price moved between $76,000 and $82,000, according to a Friday report from CryptoQuant. The cryptocurrency was hovering near $77,000 when the report was published.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, identified $77,100 to $80,200 as the nearest and heaviest on-chain supply zone above the current price. Long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC in that range during a 30-day period this year. “The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way,” Moreno said.
The next major technical level sits near $81,700, Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, which Moreno said has historically marked the point where bull markets officially begin after a closing breakout. If Bitcoin fails to clear that average, he said the market could continue trading inside its current range.
CryptoQuant Bull Signal
Above $81,700, CryptoQuant sees another resistance level at $83,600, based on its 3x Metcalfe band, which estimates Bitcoin’s value using network activity such as active addresses. Selling pressure could then emerge around $88,700, the upper level of the firm’s trader realized price model. “The upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged,” Moreno said.
If Bitcoin turns lower, Moreno pointed to roughly $70,000, its 200-day moving average, as the first major support. He also identified a deeper support zone between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders accumulated about 476,000 BTC this year.
“The overall picture remains bullish; Bitcoin simply needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop,” Moreno said.
The cluster of resistance levels matters because it places several technical and on-chain barriers within a relatively narrow range above the current price.
CryptoQuant’s models have tracked similar thresholds in earlier cycles. Its 3x Metcalfe band stood near $138,000 when Bitcoin reached a $126,000 all-time high in Oct. 2025, while the 2x band was close to the market price when Bitcoin first crossed $100,000 in Dec. 2024.
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Source: yellow.com