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Punters on Polymarket now see a better-than-even chance that Bitcoin will touch $80,000 before the end of August.
The prediction market, where users bet on real-world outcomes, puts the odds at 59%, up 57 percentage points as the cryptocurrency has surged this week.
Bitcoin traded around $77,000 on Friday, up more than 21% since the start of the month and its highest level since early June.
The rally has forced a rapid repricing across Polymarket’s Bitcoin market, which resolves on 31 August.
The chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,500 has climbed to 35%, from close to nothing, while the $85,000 band is now priced at 18%.
A move to $100,000 remains a long shot, trading at just 2%.
The surge began on Wednesday, when the US Treasury said it would at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.
The decision eased pressure in the bond market, where 30-year yields had touched their highest level since 2007, and pushed investors towards assets seen as scarce.
Institutional money has followed. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which let investors hold the cryptocurrency without owning it directly, drew $606 million on Thursday, their biggest daily inflow since May.
The gains rippled across the wider crypto market, with ether and Solana also rising sharply.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole, where officials’ guidance on interest rates could set the tone for risk assets.
A US Senate vote on landmark crypto legislation, the CLARITY Act, is also expected in September.
For now the betting crowd is leaning bullish, though 10 days of August trading remain to settle the wager.
Source: uk.finance.yahoo.com