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[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Global investment bank Bernstein maintained its earlier forecast that bitcoin could reach $300,000 in 2029, citing concerns over a decline in the value of the dollar.
CoinPost and The Block, among other foreign media, reported on Aug. 27 that Bernstein laid out a scenario in which bitcoin rewrites its record high at $150,000 in mid-2027 and reaches about $300,000 in 2029.
The core rationale is the so-called “debasement trade.” Bernstein expects a stronger shift of funds into scarce assets such as gold or <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/defillamas-new-crypto-ratings-put-128-tokens-under-the-lens/” title=”Defillama’s New Crypto Ratings Put 128 Tokens Under the Lens”>cryptocurrencies as a hedge against the possibility that a currency’s real value may decline. Bernstein analysts pointed to the end of a 40-year rate-cutting cycle and said U.S. government debt had reached $40 trillion. They said policymakers may choose to tolerate a decline in the currency’s value rather than leave fiscal conditions to worsen.
The forecast also ties in with recent U.S. Treasury actions. The Treasury said in mid-August it would increase the size of long-term bond buybacks per operation to $4 billion from $2 billion. The market interprets this as a signal that authorities are prioritising restraint in rising interest rates, and flows into scarce assets such as gold and bitcoin are expanding as investors brace for a weaker dollar.
Bernstein also presented an upside scenario in which inflows from institutional money accelerate. In that case, it said bitcoin could rise to $200,000 in mid-2027 and as high as $500,000 in 2029. Over the longer term, it also maintained a forecast of about $1 million by the end of 2033.
Market reaction is also showing up in exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the “debasement trade” is taking hold as a trend replacing this year’s market-leading concentration in artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks. The return of BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF IBIT and SPDR’s spot gold ETF GLD to the top 10 products by trading value was also cited as an extension of that shift.
Geopolitical factors also added weight to bitcoin’s narrative. Matt Hougan (맷 호건), chief investment officer at Bitwise, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to block Iran’s financial network has again highlighted bitcoin’s characteristics. Hougan said bitcoin could gain value because it is a remittance tool that does not depend on any specific country’s banking system.
Ultimately, the key to the forecast lies more in the direction of fund flows than in the price target itself. As U.S. fiscal and monetary conditions, ETF flows and geopolitical risks are all being cited as drivers turning attention toward gold and bitcoin, how much further bitcoin establishes itself beyond a risk asset as an alternative store of value is emerging as a point to watch.
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Yoonseo Leeyslee@d-today.co.kr
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Source: www.digitaltoday.co.kr