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Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Could Hit New High By Year-End – Calls It The ‘Fastest Horse’ In This Complex
Hayes expects the Fed to accommodate fiscal spending. He argues that, regardless of who leads the central bank, political pressure to support the economy could eventually mean more liquidity.
Anushka Basu·Stocktwits
Updated Sep 08, 2026 | 7:29 AM EDT
- According to Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin could hit a new high by year-end, given the dollar weakens against the Japanese yen.
- Hayes believes Japan is the key catalyst. Tokyo’s push to shift money from foreign to domestic assets could improve the liquidity conditions necessary for a bull run.
- Hayes called Bitcoin the “fastest horse” but said his firm’s larger position heading into the potential liquidity rally is Ethereum.
Bitcoin (BTC) could be on track to break a year-end record, but Arthur Hayes says the bigger story is where the next wave of global liquidity comes from. He believes Japan’s efforts to strengthen the yen, along with potential U.S. monetary support, could push money into risk assets and make Bitcoin the “fastest horse” in the next rally. But the catch — that bullish outcome hinges on what Japan and the Fed actually do. Ethereum is his firm’s bigger position, Hayes said.
“I think we can maybe breach the all-time high by the end of the year,” Hayes said to The Rollup, published on Tuesday, while cautioning that U.S. politicians “still can’t give the game away too much before the midterm elections,” with affordability topping voter concerns.
According to Hayes, the AI capex trade’s fastest gains are behind it, and bailing out overextended AI credit will require more printed money, benefiting hard assets.
“I think Bitcoin in this complex is the fastest horse”
Arthur Hayes, CEO of Flop Labs
He described it as one leg of a barbell alongside positions that perform when liquidity tightens.
Japan Trade Drives Liquidity
Hayes attributed the recent crypto bid to Japan rather than to U.S. rate expectations. He pointed to Tokyo’s pressure on the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to cut foreign holdings and buy domestic assets, calls for an uncapped Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s public prodding of the Bank of Japan. GPIF’s management committee met for the first time since Japan’s holiday month in seven years, according to a Bloomberg report.
The yen has since climbed to a seven-month high, with the dollar slipping below 153 yen on Tuesday. Hayes believes Japan’s moves to strengthen the yen could create a news on what Japan and the Fed actually do
“This is all a liquidity story,” Hayes said, adding that stocks were flat while crypto rallied. He expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates at its September 15-16 meeting rather than hike, with the target range at 3.50%-3.75%. He dismissed new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as “irrelevant,” saying every chair eventually accommodates the spending voters authorize.
Hayes added that Ethereum (ETH) is his firm’s larger position going into the liquidity rally, calling it the “most hated mega cap” coin and the worst-performing one of the cycle, with smaller allocations to Ethena (ENA). Previously, Hayes also called Ethereum his number one crypto pick.
Retail Traders Are Keeping An Eye On Macro Events
Investors are now keeping an eye on Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for clues on the Fed’s next move. This comes after Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report which has revived September rate hike bets, with 60% expecting a 375-400bps
Ethereum’s price was trading around $2,491, relatively flat in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ETH remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day. Message volume for Ethereum has been down over 8% in the past week, according to platform data.
Bitcoin’s price was trading at $78,816, down nearly 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day. According to platform data, message volume for Bitcoin has been down over 33% in the past week.
One trader on Stocktwits expects a CPI-driven selloff then a strong rally, while another user urged investors to sell every bounce and short Bitcoin, Ethereum and other major tokens. The commentary mentions a market torn between expectations of a macro-driven recovery and concerns of a further crypto slump.
Read also:Bitcoin Rally Faces Fresh Risks From Fed, Oil, Yen And Bond Markets As Spot Demand Weakens
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Source: stocktwits.com