Don't want to trade it yourself?
Our desk runs DEX portfolios on profit share.
- The altcoin market rebounded despite war fears and profit-taking pressure, with more than 200 of the top 300 tokens by market capitalization posting gains.
- Even so, it is too early to call a trend reversal because global net liquidity remains below its 2021-2022 peak, while trading volume and stablecoin net inflows are still limited.
- Macro and regulatory variables including a US-Iran clash, CPI, PCE and employment data that could shape the interest-rate path, and the US crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act could add to altcoin volatility.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The altcoin market is rebounding after war fears and profit-taking briefly stalled gains. Risk appetite also improved after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping interest rates unchanged in September if inflation continues to cool. Even so, the latest move may be premature to call the start of a broader bull run, with trading volume and liquidity inflows still limited.
More Than 200 of Top 300 Tokens Advance as PONS, Helium Surge on Catalysts
More than 200 of the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization rose over the past week, while about 90 fell. The rebound broadened across the market, though gains were uneven. Buying focused on tokens with distinct catalysts such as exchange listings, mainnet upgrades and DePIN adoption.
CoinMarketCap data on September 4 showed PONS, a token launchpad on Robinhood Chain, posted the biggest gain among the winners, soaring 445%. Investor interest appears to have intensified after its listing on KuCoin late last month and a recent surge in launchpad trading. PONS generated about $5.95 million in fees on September 1 alone, highlighting rapidly increasing transaction activity on Robinhood Chain.
New meme coin MARSCOIN jumped 229%. Helium climbed 221% and USELESS rose 216%, each posting triple-digit gains. Helium got a boost after news that Celina, Texas, had built communications coverage on the Helium Network using existing public facilities and downtown Wi-Fi infrastructure.
AKE gained 90.3% and SKR rose 88.7%. SKR is the native token of the Solana Mobile ecosystem, and buying appeared to be driven by expectations for expanded staking rewards and ecosystem incentives.
Tokens tied to Robinhood Chain also rallied. Arbitrum rose 51.8% on expectations that growing Robinhood Chain activity could lift ecosystem revenue. Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum’s technology stack and distributes part of net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Uniswap gained 36.1%, reflecting expectations it could benefit from the recent rise in decentralized exchange trading because its protocol operates on Robinhood Chain.
CHIP rose 52.6% after securing a $100 million lending facility from crypto platform Bullish for a GPU-collateralized lending business. MultiversX advanced 35.4% as investors focused on a mainnet upgrade and expectations for a coming hard fork.
Rebound Broadens, but Trend Reversal Still Needs Liquidity Confirmation
Despite the increase in the number of advancing tokens, it remains too early to declare a broader trend reversal in the altcoin market. Recent gains have centered on tokens with individual catalysts, and there is still little evidence that liquidity has spread across the market as a whole.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said global net liquidity, a key driver for digital assets, remains below previous peaks even as M2 money supply has climbed to a record high. Global net liquidity currently stands at about $25 trillion roughly $5 trillion below the approximately $30 trillion recorded in 2021 and 2022. That suggests liquidity conditions are still not strong enough for capital to spread broadly across the altcoin market
Global net liquidity is calculated by combining the balance sheets of major central banks in the US, Europe, Japan, China and the UK, then subtracting funds tied up in the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase facility and the US Treasury General Account. The measure is used to gauge liquidity that could flow into financial markets.
Macro conditions and policy uncertainty are also limiting the rebound’s momentum. A US-Iran clash that pushes oil prices and market interest rates higher again could weaken the altcoin recovery. The CLARITY Act, a US crypto market structure bill, faces a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15 that will determine whether formal deliberations proceed. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins recently signaled that talks on the bill could make progress within the next two weeks, but caution remains over whether it can be enacted this year.
Crypto analytics firm Bitfire Research said market sensitivity to macroeconomic data may increase after Waller said in a recent Jackson Hole speech that policy would stay focused on price stability and respond to incoming data. That means major releases including the consumer price index, personal consumption expenditures and the employment report could shift expectations for the rate path and add to digital-asset volatility.
Thin trading volume is another constraint. Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, said the crypto market entered a bullish correction phase in mid-August after a strong rebound, cooling short-term overheating. Still, CryptoQuant data cited by FxPro showed trading volume on major exchanges remains about 70% below October last year. With trading activity yet to recover sufficiently, it is too early to declare the start of a new bull cycle.
Stablecoin flows also have yet to show a clear sign of full-fledged liquidity inflows. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the 30-day average of exchange net inflows for ERC-20-based stablecoins turned positive on September 1 for the first time in 113 days. But the amount fell by half in two days, dropping to $6.85 million on September 3 from $13.85 million. Adler said the shift looked less like the start of sustained capital inflows than a neutralization of the earlier outflow phase. Because stablecoins moving onto exchanges represent potential buying power for cryptocurrencies, the altcoin rally will need net inflows to expand again to show staying power.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter
#Market Outlook
#Analysis
PONS
UNI
ARB
EGLD
HNT
CHIP
Source: en.bloomingbit.io