Bitcoin Recovery Faces Fed Rate Decision and US Senate Crypto Vote | Ukraine news

Bitcoin Recovery Faces Fed Rate Decision and US Senate Crypto Vote

Monday, 14 September 2026, 15:31

Bitcoin’s rebound has attracted fresh buyers, but two decisions could quickly determine whether optimism returns or the rally begins to fade.

On September 14, 2026, bitcoin once again attracted buyers’ attention after several months of decline. However, its late-summer recovery will now face decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates and an important Senate vote on cryptocurrency legislation.

After lingering near two-year lows of around $60,000 for an extended period, bitcoin climbed above $70,000 in late August. The move was supported by a temporary decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an improvement in overall market sentiment.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency remains about 50% below its October 2025 peak, when its price exceeded $126,000. Traders have little expectation that it will reach that level again, but the options market has shown a bullish bias for the first time in 12 months. According to Derive.xyz, some investors expect bitcoin to rise to $80,000 or higher by December.

There is little basis for unqualified optimism. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, prospects for the U.S. Senate to pass a key cryptocurrency bill have deteriorated, and persistent inflation has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Higher borrowing costs typically reduce available liquidity and weigh on risk assets.

Despite these factors, some investors believe bitcoin has already passed the worst stage. Traders put the probability of a rate hike on Wednesday at 85% following the release of unfavorable inflation data. Meanwhile, long-term bond yields are approaching 5%, creating additional competition for capital from cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin was in oversold territory for some time. Short-term traders view the inflation figures and rate hike as threats to the near-term outlook.

Options market turns bullish again

According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, the 25-delta skew, which compares demand for call options with demand for protective put options, turned positive on August 20. This indicates that buyers are willing to pay more for options that allow them to profit from a further rise in bitcoin.

It is a somewhat bullish signal.

He attributed the improved sentiment to the return of capital to cryptocurrencies following SpaceX’s initial public offering, which had previously drawn some funds away from the market. Meanwhile, South Korean stocks, which also attract speculative investors, have lost some of their momentum.

According to Derive.xyz, open interest in options expiring in December is concentrated primarily at the following strike prices:

$80,000 – around $710 million in notional value;

$100,000 – approximately $530 million in notional value.

Signs of recovering demand are also visible in bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which attract both institutional and retail investors. In the week that began on August 17, inflows into these funds nearly reached $2 billion. This followed eight consecutive weeks of outflows in May and June.

Crypto market participants are now looking past all the negative factors and asking themselves: where are the opportunities for growth?

In Ferrioli’s view, an additional positive factor could be a statement from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that a rate hike would be a one-off move and would not mark the beginning of a prolonged cycle of monetary tightening. For now, Warsh has declined to commit the central bank to a specific rate path.

At the same time, any rate hike is unlikely to be immediately viewed as a positive signal for bitcoin and other speculative assets.

It will probably weaken the recent rally.

Rising Treasury yields typically put pressure on risk assets. However, bitcoin supporters believe that Treasury buybacks aimed at containing yields could increase concerns about dollar debasement. In that case, demand could shift toward scarce assets, including bitcoin.

We believe structural demand for bitcoin is improving, although the short-term environment has become more vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility and shifts in investor positioning. The debasement-hedging strategy appears to be returning.

Donald Trump administration’s cryptocurrency policy

Another potential driver for bitcoin could be the policy of President Donald Trump’s administration, which is considered friendly toward cryptocurrencies.

The market has likely already priced in the possibility that the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory clarity bill will not pass because of delays and opposition from many senators. This was stated by Sygnum, a Swiss digital-asset bank, investment strategist Kan-Luka Koymen.

The bill is intended to eliminate legal uncertainty in the industry by defining which tokens qualify as securities and which qualify as commodities. This could potentially accelerate the adoption of digital assets. A procedural vote in the U.S. Senate is scheduled for Tuesday and could ultimately determine the bill’s fate.

If the bill passes unexpectedly, I believe it would be a fundamental catalyst for growth.

As a result, the coming days could prove decisive for bitcoin: its recovery will depend simultaneously on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the behavior of bond yields, and the outcome of the Senate vote on cryptocurrency legislation.

• Bitcoin rose above $80,000 for the first time in more than three months as a weaker dollar and renewed US crypto support boosted investor interest.
• Investors warn that a Federal Reserve rate pause could trigger a bond selloff, raise long-term yields, and intensify concerns about inflation and US borrowing needs.
• Bitcoin fell from a $126,000 peak to roughly $60,000, wiping over $1 trillion in market value, triggering investor selloffs, ETF outflows and renewed focus on the CLARITY Act.

Source: mezha.net