On-chain analysis platform Glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat during the same period, but are still down 10% year-to-date. The cost basis of long-term holders, the futures liquidation map, and the breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF all indicate upper resistance between $83,000 and $86,000, with the highest spot price approximately 1.5% below the bottom of that range, followed by a narrow consolidation below $80,000.

Approximately 1.07 million Bitcoins were purchased by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, with the heaviest positions close to $85,000, and this block has remained nearly unchanged for the past 30 days. The selling pressure at the high point of the range is calculated at 7 basis points per day based on the selling risk ratio, which is less than half of August’s peak of 16 basis points, and the profit realization ratio for long-term holders has dropped from 88% in August to 47%. The breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF since its launch has been around $86,000, with the paper loss narrowing to approximately $3.9 billion.

U.S. core inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, with inflation expectations at 3.6%, marking the widest gap in three years; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, near a two-year high. The derivatives liquidation heatmap shows that the short liquidation shelf between $82,000 and $86,000 has increased by 21% since the squeeze on August 19.