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Bitcoin(<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/coalition-warns-new-rules-risk-crypto-catastrophe/” title=”Coalition warns new rules risk crypto catastrophe”>CRYPTO: BTC) this week confirmed a daily golden cross, signaling its bear-market low may be in. But history suggests a sharp pullback could come first.
Prominent crypto analyst Kev Capital on Tuesday nothed that Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average has crossed above its 200-day moving average after more than 300 days in a bear-market trend.
Similar late-cycle golden crosses in 2015, 2019 and 2023 that coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market lows already being established.
In each case, Bitcoin had broken decisively above key daily moving averages before the golden cross appeared.
The analyst argued he still needs stronger confirmation that Bitcoin can decisively clear its major two-day moving averages in the $78,000 to $84,500 region.
Does a Golden Cross Rule Out a Dip?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen on Tuesday cautioned that golden crosses frequently coincide with short-term corrections rather than immediate rallies.
In 2023, Bitcoin dropped roughly 12% around its golden cross before eventually recovering and setting a higher high. A similar setup in 2019 saw BTC fall around 15% before resuming its advance.
Cowen predicts a comparable correction today could send Bitcoin toward roughly $70,000 to $72,000. However, that would not necessarily invalidate the bullish setup.
“The bull thesis fades when the rally after the golden cross dump resolves to a lower high,” Cowen explained.
Cowen said traders should focus less on the initial golden cross pullback and more on what happens during the rebound.
In 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin rebounded to a higher high, supporting the case that the bear market had ended while in 2014 and 2015, it formed lower highs before falling again.
That makes Bitcoin’s next rally particularly important.
A break above the recent high and 50-week moving average would weaken the bearish case and a rejection could raise the risk of another decline in Q4.
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