Morgan Creek CIO: “Bitcoin Bottom on October 5… Sold 90% of Solana”

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Mark Yusko, founder and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, said <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/bitcoin-policy-institute-reports-mena-crypto-volume-hits/” title=”Bitcoin Policy Institute Reports MENA Crypto Volume Hits”>Bitcoin has not yet emerged from its danger zone and predicted this cycle’s bottom will form on October 5. While disclosing that roughly 50% of his portfolio consists of Bitcoin-related assets, he noted the market is overbought in the short term and said Bitcoin could fall to $60,000. He pegged fair value at $105,000 based on Metcalfe’s law and other metrics. Yusko also revealed he sold 90% of his Solana holdings, claiming a return of roughly 1,000x, though this figure has not been independently verified. He argued that Solana, along with Ethereum and Uniswap governance tokens, suffer from a structural flaw: holders have no claim to network fee revenue.

Key Elements

Mark Yusko, founder and chief investment officer (CIO) of crypto-focused asset manager Morgan Creek Capital Management, said Bitcoin has not yet escaped its danger zone and predicted that this cycle’s bottom will form in early October. Even with roughly half of his portfolio allocated to Bitcoin-related assets, he did not rule out further downside in the near term.

In an interview with the Crypto Banter podcast released on the 6th (local time), Yusko said approximately 50% of his portfolio consists of Bitcoin and Bitcoin-linked assets. Venture capital investments account for 45%, with cash and short-term assets at 10%. He added that such a high allocation was not intentional from the start, but rather grew naturally as the value of his investments appreciated.

On the Bitcoin allocation he recommends for ordinary investors, he said “everyone should hold around 5%, 8%, or 10%.” He stressed, however, that allocation should vary by age. For investors under 35, he went so far as to say “I think owning bonds should literally be illegal.” His reasoning: young investors should prepare for stock market volatility and currency debasement rather than avoiding risk through fixed-income assets like bonds.

On the short-term Bitcoin outlook, he was clearly bearish. Following the recent short squeeze, the market is “extremely, extremely overbought,” and the recent rebound is “still a move within a bear market,” he said. “I don’t think we’re completely out of the danger zone yet,” he added.

The CIO expects this cycle’s bottom to form on October 5, which would be 364 days from the previous peak. He explained that Bitcoin’s fair value, calculated using Metcalfe’s law, network user counts, and transaction volumes, is approximately $105,000. However, depending on market conditions, he said Bitcoin could fall to around $60,000 before rebounding. That said, he sees a low probability of Bitcoin dropping below the cost of electricity required for mining, which he estimates at roughly $58,000.

Sold 90% of Solana… “1,000x Return”

Yusko also revealed he has sold nearly all of his Solana (SOL) holdings. He called the Solana investment “probably the best investment of my life.” The Solana position originated when Morgan Creek invested in Multicoin Capital’s first fund.

He claimed the return on his Solana investment reached approximately 1,000x the initial outlay. However, he did not provide specific investment records, and the return figure has not been independently verified. “We sold 90%,” he said.

He explained that the exit was not driven by fundamentals. He said he pulled out after Multicoin Capital announced it would throw a $2.5 million afterparty. Still, he emphasized that his concerns about Solana are structural rather than personal. He argued the same issues apply to governance tokens of Ethereum (ETH) and Uniswap (UNI).

Yusko pointed out that holders of such tokens have no claim to the fee revenue generated by their networks. If a token is issued without any claim on equity, debt, or cash flows, he said it is “kind of scammy.”

Bitcoin critics counter that Bitcoin has the same problem, but Yusko argued Bitcoin should not be held to the same standard. His reasoning: Bitcoin is not a “usage token” for accessing a specific network, but rather a store of value.

Market Impact and Investor Takeaways

Yusko’s remarks came as Bitcoin traded around $79,650, roughly flat over the prior 24 hours. Solana was up more than 3% over 24 hours at around $105.

His outlook carries weight because Morgan Creek has a long track record in crypto asset management. In particular, his warning of short-term downside while keeping half his portfolio in Bitcoin reflects a professional investor’s ability to separate long-term conviction from near-term correction risk.

That said, investors should treat Yusko’s claimed 1,000x Solana return as a reference point rather than face value, given that it has not been independently verified. His critique of token structure could reignite debate over governance tokens across major DeFi protocols, including Solana, Ethereum, and Uniswap.

His pinpointing of a specific date for Bitcoin’s bottom is also unusual. While the October 5 call is based on the calculation that it marks day 364 from the previous peak, a single-date prediction can hardly serve as an absolute basis for investment decisions given crypto market volatility. Nevertheless, the specific figures he offered — fair value of $105,000, potential downside to $60,000, and mining electricity cost of $58,000 — provide useful reference points for market participants.

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Source: finance.biggo.com