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Crypto: CLARITY Act Has Just a 13% Chance of Passing
9h05 ▪5min read ▪ byAriela R.
Getting informed▪Crypto regulationSummarize this article with:
The Clarity Act has never been closer to a vote. The US Senate must decide on September 15. However, it is going through unprecedented turbulence. Indeed, prediction markets now give this crypto-assets regulation bill only slim chances of adoption. On Polymarket, the probability of success dropped from 82% in February to only 13% on August 3, 2026. Enough to raise concerns!
In brief
- Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act only a 13% chance of being adopted in 2026.
- Kalshi, on the other hand, predicts a 91% chance of a Senate vote before October 1.
- The US Senate tests the text on September 15, with a threshold of 60 votes.
- Three disagreements still block a crypto compromise.
- The SEC and CFTC are already moving alone on crypto regulation, without waiting for Congress.
Prediction markets radically revise their expectations
On Kalshi, traders estimate a 91% probability of a Senate vote before October 1. This market has already generated over $1.25 million in volume. The largest contract regarding the full adoption of crypto regulation even exceeds $6.8 million traded.
Polymarket tells a very different story. On this prediction platform, the bet is directly on the question: will H.R. 3633 (better known as the Clarity Act) become law in 2026? Indeed, more than $11.5 million have been wagered on this contract. However, the implied probability has collapsed to 13%. A dramatic drop compared to the 82% chance traders still anticipated last February!
For crypto investors, this divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket reflects:
- a confidence in the senators’ ability to vote;
- a deep doubt about their capacity to turn this vote into effective law.
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A high-tension crypto vote in the US Senate
The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) aims to create a clear federal framework for the American crypto market. It was adopted by the House of Representatives in July 2025 by 294 votes to 134. The Senate vote also represents the last major hurdle with deadlines postponed several times.
Specifically, this bill would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.
Important note: September 15, 2026, will primarily be a closing vote on the “motion to proceed”. This is a procedure to authorize the start of debate on the bill. CLARITY Act supporters must gather 60 favorable votes. Republicans already control 53 seats. Thus, at least 7 Democrats will have to join them to overcome the cloture.
In this context, opinions diverge within the crypto community. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong notably states he is “rather optimistic” about surpassing 60 votes. In an interview with CNBC, he said:
Both sides got about 90% of what they wanted.
According to reports by American Banker, analyst Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate. It dropped from about 40% to 25%. Similarly, Galaxy Digital became more pessimistic with an estimate of only 10% in August.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/2088347885117010133%20
Three blockages now threaten US crypto regulation
The first concerns ethics. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, demand a binding ban for officials holding crypto-assets. Without this clause, they refuse to support the bill.
The second point of blockage involves stablecoins and traditional banks. The latter refuse any compromise on rewards. This conflict directly opposes crypto innovation to the interests of the traditional banking sector.
The third issue concerns DeFi and non-custodial software developers. The protections to be granted to these actors divide lawmakers. Some fear creating regulatory loopholes.
Good to know: while the US Senate is bogged down in partisan quarrels, the SEC and CFTC are pushing their own crypto reforms. Unlike the legislative route, these regulators prefer to build a legal framework through regulation.
Now led by Paul Atkins, the SEC seems to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards blockchain and digital assets. Proof: it has abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets.
The CFTC, for its part, is working on leveraged exchanges and DeFi. However, this strategy carries a major risk: the rules can be dismantled by a future administration.
In any case, the countdown is on. The future of the Clarity Act will be decided in a few decisive weeks with direct consequences for the entire American and global crypto ecosystem. Story to follow closely!
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Ariela R.
My name is Ariela, and I am 31 years old. I have been working in the field of web writing for 7 years now. I only discovered trading and cryptocurrency a few years ago, but it is a universe that greatly interests me. The topics covered on the platform allow me to learn more. A singer in my spare time, I also cultivate a great passion for music and reading (and animals!)
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Source: www.cointribune.com