The “Realized Cap Impulse” indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative value state and has turned positive for the first time, marking a reversal signal after the longest capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022. This indicator measures the momentum of changes in realized market capitalization (Realized Cap) and combines factors of Bitcoin supply and price to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive turn of the indicator does not simply reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.

Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained a positive value for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period. As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data shows that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% over 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45%, with a one-year increase of 104%. However, the realized market cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive turns occurred in early 2018 and early 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator’s continuous positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day break above the zero axis.