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Lately, it’s been all-hands-on-deck as the crypto industry attempts to push through a comprehensive piece of new legislation called the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act). The newest recruit to the crypto cause is Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), which recently voiced its support for the legislation.
The only problem is that even the support of Wall Street doesn’t guarantee passage of the new legislation. That makes things dicey for investors, as they attempt to read the tea leaves and determine what exactly will happen next. With that in mind, here’s a look at the most likely scenario going forward and what it might mean for crypto stocks.
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Possible scenarios
After analyzing data from online prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket, it’s possible to sketch out a probability distribution of when the Senate will actually vote on the Clarity Act, how many members of Congress will support the legislation, and when the legislation might actually get signed into law by the White House.
Right now on Kalshi, there’s an 87% chance that the Senate will vote on the Clarity Act sometime before Oct. 1, 2027. Already, there’s a procedural vote scheduled for Sept. 15, so there could be time to take a full Senate vote before the midterm elections.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that any number of potential issues could make final passage of this legislation close to impossible; there just won’t be enough votes to make it happen in the House.
Most likely, it will be ethics concerns that hold back passage of the Clarity Act. Democratic lawmakers are simply unwilling to pass the legislation if it doesn’t include strong ethics provisions to prevent elected officials from profiting from their own crypto ventures. This is, undoubtedly, a shot fired across the bow at the current Trump administration, which has dabbled in everything from meme coins to Bitcoin mining.
Again, prediction markets give a clue of what might happen. Right now on Kalshi, there’s only an 8% chance of the Clarity Act passing before Oct. 1, a 16% chance before Nov. 1, an 18% chance before Dec. 1, and a 23% chance before Jan. 1.
If you believe in the predictive power of prediction markets, the first real opportunity to pass the Clarity Act might be next July. That’s when the odds rise to 60%. But those odds could change dramatically, depending on the outcome of the midterm elections.
Source: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/wall-street-now-backing-clarity-093300301.html” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>finance.yahoo.com