ETF Flood and Dollar Weakness Put $85,885 in Play

Bitcoin Rips Toward $80K: ETF Flood and Dollar Weakness Put $85,885 in Play

As of now, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $77,000 – $77,400 having broken $79k during its recent surge of over 20% in the last week…

Written by:
Arslan Ali Butt•Monday, August 24, 2026•5 min read
•Last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026

As of now, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $77,000 – $77,400 having broken $79k during its recent surge of over 20% in the last week. The surge has been due to returning institutional demand. US Bitcoin ETA’s garnered record inflows, reaching $606 million on August 20 alone and over $1.6 billion for Monday to Thursday of last week. Bitcoin is accumulating more and more people during the so-called “Debasement Trade” – investing in dollars, which become less valuable. Bitcoin is also benefiting from the recent violent sell off in the dollar caused by U.S. fiscal concerns and the uncertainty surrounding the Treasury market.

Bitcoin’s August breakout may have more to do with fundamentals than a pure momentum move. ETF capital is coming back, and BTC’s corporate treasury adoption and participation in the Debasement Trade are positive factors, at least in the short term. There are fundamental risk factors, as the market is now rife with liquidity and price action could mean BTC is positioning itself for a violent sell off to $80k.

ETF Flows Are Fueling the Bitcoin Breakout

The most bullish signal on Bitcoin is the recent inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETF’s. The Wall Street Journal reported that the ETF’s saw $1.6 billion in inflows from Monday to Thursday last, with Thursday seeing $606 million.

In the two days leading up to Bitcoin’s break of $70k, CoinDesk data reported inflows of $517 million on August 19. This matters because ETF inflows create spot demand.

With funds leading to growth, new money will need to bewill diminish and provide traditional asset managers with a new and easier way to gain BTC exposure.The flows this week demonstrate that crypto traders probably weren’t the only reason for this breakout of the summer range

Treasury Intervention Revives the Debasement Trade

Bitcoin also gained an important macro catalyst from the U.S. Treasury. The first was the Treasury’s announcement that it was increasing long-dated securities buybacks from the current roughly $2 billion to roughly $4 billion, which, as expected, also pushed the dollar lower and increased the price of both Bitcoin and gold.

Reuters described it as a renewed “debasement trade,” where other concerns about the United States’ rising deficit and Treasury market interventions led to an increase in demand for scarce assets.

This is particularly favorable to Bitcoin, as there will never be more than 21 million in Bitcoin. As with all fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s supply cannot increase to cover a government’s deficit or meet a stress in the sovereign debt market.

This scarcity especially comes into play when the buying power of all fiat currencies is in question, along with a government’s ability to service its debt.

Dollar Weakness Adds Another Tailwind

Dollar weakness also works to Bitcoin’s advantage, somewhat like with gold. With a declining dollar, certain dollar-denominated assets become relatively more scarce and draw more investment as people move away from the conventional currency sovereigns.

Bitcoin’s price action recently suggest investors are more willing to incorporate Bitcoin within their broader macro hedging strategy.This still doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is completely devoid of a risk on component, as it tends to move with equities, liquidity, and interest rates.Last week’s strength in both Bitcoin and gold signifies the return of the digital-gold narrative.

Institutional Adoption Extends Beyond ETFs

Bitcoin accumulation by corporations is an additional structuralthey plan to create a Bitcoin treasury platform in the US for around 2,100 BTC and $2.5 million with a $134.6 million value, the first step in pursuing a Nasdaq-listed U.S. platform for their treasury strategy with regulatory and shareholder approvals

Corporate treasury strategies and ETFs are also different because of the holding and selling periods for Bitcoin, but both impact the coin’s availability for immediate sale. This dynamic can be powerful with rising institutional demand, stable and predictable new supply of Bitcoin, and longer holding periods.

Bitcoin Finally Escapes the Summer Range

The fact that Bitcoin has moved so far is significant, as it has been stuck in a range from62,000-65,000 for most of the summer. Just a few days ago, Bitcoin was trading around $64,000, while bond yields and the oil price were creating pressure on risk sentiment in general.

This breakout propelled BTC above $70,000, $75,000, and $79,455, it’s highest point since May. This short squeeze is in the several billions and has made Bitcoin’s gain this week over 20%. Now, this move is not an average rebound, it is a repricing.

Leverage Is Now the Biggest Short-Term Risk

The bull case for Bitcoin does have a glaring issue: Bitcoin is becoming even more crowded. The research shows that Bitcoin futures are at an open interest of about $48 billion, making this an even greater short-term risk unless there is liquidity growth to match. The impact of the recent rally has proven just how damaging leveraged positions can be.

As short positions were liquidated in the prior rally due to price rising, long leveraged positions will now be liquidated as price falls and breaks below support. This can cause price to decline until all long leveraged positions are liquidated and can perpetuate itself with more long liquidations.Even with high ETF demand, there is still risk of short-term leverage in a structurally weak rally as the risk of liquidation remains.

Jackson Hole Becomes the Next Macro Test

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is one of the larger macro events happening this week. Bitcoin will likely move as soon as there is some market directionality. The combination of a dovish Fed and weakening dollar should support Bitcoin and other risk on assets.

A highly hawkish statement, which would likely reverse dollar weakness, raise yields, and reverse the Bitcoin rally, would likely be the kiss of death for further Bitcoin rallies. All of the investor support has built up rapidly, and price is very close to the top.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: $79,313 Is the Next Breakout Trigger

Bitcoin has now shown clear bullish trend line on the daily, after successfully escaping the62k-65k range consolidation. Currently trading at $77.1k, after successfully going through resistance levels at $69k, $71k, $73k and $75k. Next immediate target is at $79,313, nearly identical to the recent high in the $79k range.

A daily close above $79,313 defines a new higher high and next target is at $82k and $85k after that. Momentum is still in favor of the bulls, and at the same time, strongly overbought.

The RSI is reading at 78, which in comparison to the 70 overbought reading is a firm SELL sign, but also provides a strongish buy entry zone. If BTC does sell off support comes at $75k and continues down at $73k, $71k and $69k.

Resistance:$79,313, $82,469, $85,884

Support:$75,433, $73,000, $71,034, $69,068

Bitcoin is bullish above the73k-75k support zone, and another break above $79k would signal bullish continuation to the $82k and $85k levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Bitcoin rising so quickly?

Bitcoin is benefitting from the launch of the spot BTC ETFs and resulting market inflows, a trend dominated by dollar cost averaging. Add to that the weakness in the dollar and the safe haven interest driving new buyers, and you have a recipe of why Bitcoin is currently soaring.

How much money is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs?

U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded nearly $606 million in inflows on the 20th of August, and nearly $1.6 billion in inflows for the entire week.

What is the next major BTC resistance?

The near-term breakout resistance level is around $79,313. Traders will then look at the levels of $82,469 and $85,884.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Ali Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.

His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.

His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

Source: www.fxleaders.com