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Vaneck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, says his year-ahead bitcoin target and his 2029 cycle-peak call haven’t moved. Bitcoin is currently surging and has cleanly broken past the all-important $75,000 psychological threshold.
WRITTEN BYShiraz Jagati
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Published:Aug 21, 2026, 5:20 AM EDT
Key Takeaways
- Vaneck’s Matthew Sigel maintains a $100,000 bitcoin call for 2027 and a $500,000 target for 2029.
- Bitcoin is trading near $79,000 on August 21, still well below its all time high.
- Vaneck’s mid-August Chaincheck found 8 of 12 capitulation signals flashing as of August 18.
A Target That Hasn’t Moved
Sigel reiterated his stance on television this week, telling CNBC he still expects bitcoin to climb to $100,000 next year and that $500,000 by 2029 remains achievable if the current cycle plays out as usual.
He first made the case in April, when he told reporters that $100,000 within a year was totally reasonable, a time when bitcoin was trading around $68,510. However, the latest call comes when institutional inflows have been steadying and President Trump has ushered in a pro-crypto policy backdrop, which has already produced a string of new all-time highs.
Sigel’s numbers also sit inside a wider band of Wall Street forecasts given that he has separately circulated Bernstein’s view that the four-year halving cycle has effectively broken down, with sticky institutional buying the current correction
Bernstein’s own target puts a 2026 year-end price near $150,000 and a cycle peak around $200,000 in 2027, broadly consistent with the $180,000 to $500,000 range Vaneck is working from, even if the exact timing differs firm to firm.
A Trillion-Dollar Treasury Bet
Vaneck’s longer-dated $500,000 target rests on a different pillar, i.e. government accumulation. The firm’s research ties the 2029 figure to the Bitcoin Act of 2024, proposed legislation that would direct the U.S. Treasury to acquire up to 1 million BTC by 2029, roughly 4.8% of total supply.
The firm believes sovereign purchases on that scale would create a self-reinforcing demand cycle, where government buying validates bitcoin as a reserve asset and pulls other sovereigns toward similar allocations.
That said, the bullish multi-year targets sit awkwardly next to Vaneck’s own near-term data. The firm’s mid-August Chaincheck report found 8 of 12 signals flashing capitulation as of August 18, with all 12 having touched capitulation territory at some point over the prior three months. Long-term holders sold 356,000 BTC in 30 days, pushing their share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months, a pattern historically associated with investor exhaustion near cycle lows.
Vaneck’s researchers pointed to a potential turning point between September and November, based on past corrections averaging 12.7 months from peak to trough. They also flagged a caveat worth keeping in mind, i.e. historically, periods when this many capitulation signals fire at once have produced forward 90-day and 180-day returns that came in below bitcoin’s typical baseline, meaning the signals are better at flagging stress than timing an exact bottom.
Bullish Moves Ahead
Vaneck is effectively arguing that the current stretch near $80,000 is noise within a multi-year uptrend that still points toward six figures in 2027 and a much higher figure by the end of the decade. Whether that assertion holds now depends on two separate timelines converging, namely a near-term recovery playing out on the scale of months, and a Treasury accumulation program. Interesting few days ahead, to say the least!
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Source: news.bitcoin.com