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Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is climbing back toward the $100 mark even as Bitcoin trades sideways near $64,000. The stock closed around $97.68 after a 5% rally, showing renewed strength despite little movement in its underlying asset.
That rebound is notable because MSTR has fallen much harder than Bitcoin this year. While BTC is down roughly 28% in 2026, Strategy has declined about 38%. Yet Wall Street analysts continue to rate the stock as a Strong Buy, suggesting investors are focusing on factors beyond Bitcoin’s short-term price.
Here are the three biggest reasons the bullish case for MSTR remains intact.
MSTR Has Underperformed Bitcoin
Strategy was designed to behave like a leveraged Bitcoin investment. During strong crypto rallies, the stock has historically outperformed BTC because investors pay a premium for exposure to the company’s massive Bitcoin treasury.
This year, however, the opposite happened. MSTR lost more value than Bitcoin, leaving many investors questioning whether the premium had disappeared for good.
The answer largely comes down to one metric: mNAV.
1. The mNAV Premium Could Recover
The biggest driver of Strategy’s valuation is its modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), which measures how much investors are willing to pay above the value of the Bitcoin the company holds.
Strategy currently owns 840,447 BTC, worth roughly $54 billion at current prices. The company paid about $63 billion to accumulate those holdings, leaving the treasury approximately $9 billion underwater on paper.
More importantly, investor sentiment has compressed the valuation premium. The basic mNAV measure has fallen to around 0.7, meaning the common stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Broader calculations that include preferred shares and convertible debt place the ratio closer to 1.05, which explains why different analysts quote different figures.
The opportunity is straightforward: if investor confidence returns and the premium expands toward previous levels near 1.5, MSTR could appreciate significantly even if Bitcoin remains flat.
Unlike Bitcoin’s price, mNAV is driven by demand for Strategy shares rather than the cryptocurrency itself.
2. Strategy Has Shifted From Buying Bitcoin to Buying Back Stock
The second reason is the company’s capital allocation strategy.
When MSTR traded at a large premium to its Bitcoin holdings, Strategy could issue new shares, purchase additional Bitcoin, and increase the amount of BTC backing each share. That model becomes less effective when the premium falls close to one.
As a result, Strategy has largely paused Bitcoin purchases. Its last reported acquisition came in mid-June, ending an aggressive accumulation streak that had defined the company for years.
Instead, management has been directing capital toward its STRC preferred shares, a dividend-paying security designed to trade near $100. By repurchasing shares below intrinsic value, the company can improve the Bitcoin exposure of remaining shareholders without adding another coin to its treasury.
For investors, that creates another path for shareholder value even during periods of flat Bitcoin prices.
3. The Technical Picture Shows Seller Exhaustion
The final reason comes from the chart.
Since late June, MSTR has been trading within a rising channel, consistently producing higher lows while Bitcoin has largely consolidated. Monday’s 5% rally came after the stock bounced from support near $92, reinforcing the channel’s structure.
Volume tells an equally important story.
Trading activity has fallen by roughly 63% from June levels, suggesting aggressive selling has faded. At the same time, buying activity has gradually recovered to levels seen in July, pointing to improving demand rather than speculative mania.
This combination often reflects seller exhaustion, where declining selling pressure allows buyers to regain control of the trend.
Key Price Levels to Watch
The immediate battle is around the psychological $100 level.
A sustained break above that resistance would expose $101.96, followed by $104.73 and $108.26. Those levels represent the next technical hurdles within the current recovery.
The bigger bullish signal sits higher.
If MSTR can break above $118.46, the rising channel remains intact and the stock could target $134.95 and potentially $151.44 over time.
On the downside, support sits near $98.07 and $95.66. A daily close below $91.77 would invalidate the current bullish channel and weaken the recovery thesis.
What Happens Next for MSTR?
The bullish case for Strategy does not require Bitcoin to rally immediately, but it does depend on sentiment improving.
A recovery in the mNAV premium, continued shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and confirmation above the $100–118 resistance zone could allow MSTR to outperform Bitcoin even during a period of sideways BTC trading.
For now, the stock is testing whether investors are willing to value Strategy as more than just the Bitcoin it holds. If that premium returns, MSTR’s next move may be driven as much by market sentiment as by Bitcoin itself.
Source: www.altcoinbuzz.io