A recession is generally categorized as a period of economic decay and decline. This phase is marked statistically as a period where two successive GDP quarters report stagnant metrics. A period marred by low industrial activity and trade, the US seems to be living in that era, even though the economy looks pristine from the outside. The latest recession stats are portraying a different story, claiming that the US is indeed in recession, with growing signs of uncertainty gnawing at the US economy.
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US Economy In Recession, Stats Confirm
Per the recent update by the Kobeissi Letter on X, the US economy is showing signs of early recession. A leading recession indicator known as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index has now fallen by 0.1% in May. The index has posted its sixth decline on a monthly basis, spreading ominous fears of recession in the space.
Moreover, this index has plunged 37 out of 39 months. This development is indicating how the US economy is now slowly entering into a phase of recession and economic decay.
“Leading US economic indicators are still signaling a recession. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.1% MoM in May, posting its 6th straight monthly decline. His index has declined in 37 out of the last 39 months, one of the worst streaks on record.”
In addition to this, further stats reveal how the index has dropped by an annualized 5%, indicating a looming recession crisis over the US economy. The index is down 16%, reaching its lowest level in almost 9 years.
“The LEI has dropped by a ~5% annualized rate over the last 6 months. Below the threshold that signals an impending recession. Furthermore, it is now down ~16% from its peak and has reached its lowest level in 9 years.”
Leading US economic indicators are still signaling a recession:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell- 0.1% MoM in May, posting its 6th straight monthly decline.
This index has declined in 37 out of the last 39 months, one of the worst streaks on record.
The… pic.twitter.com/yDxNR4ZuBK
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 23, 2025
What Does the Index Indicate?
The LEI index is an economic forecast tool, an index that tracks the US’s future economic growth. The index combines 10 economic markers, such as jobless claims, stock prices, weekly hours in manufacturing, and building permits for new houses, to predict the future trajectory of an economy.
A sustained decline in this index often signals an impending recession. A rising LEI, on the other hand, signals that the economic prosperity is at its peak, growing rapidly with each passing day.
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