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While XRP experiences a notable surge, on-chain data paints a much less euphoric picture. In the background, record volumes of profit-taking by long-term holders are multiplying, injecting a silent but significant selling pressure. This discrepancy between visible euphoria and structural signals raises doubts about the rally’s strength. Several technical indicators point to an increased risk of reversal in a market where the balance seems increasingly fragile.
In brief
XRP has tripled since November 2024, attracting the attention of retail and institutional investors.
Behind this rise, early XRP holders are realizing massive profits, amounting to 68.8 million dollars per day.
The current behavior resembles the 2017 peak, followed by a 90 % crash, according to data analyzed by Glassnode.
The XRP market is in a phase of tension between massive profit-taking and hope for continued bullish momentum.
Massive Profit-Taking Behind the Scenes
While XRP explodes by 50 % in on-chain activity, the latest Glassnode data highlights intense profit-taking behavior by historical XRP investors. These holders, who amassed crypto before the bullish rally of November 2024, are currently selling at a sustained pace.
Indeed, these high-gain holders are realizing “68.8 million dollars of profits per day, on average over the past seven days”. These are participants who bought XRP at under 0.50 dollars and now benefit from gains exceeding 300%.
This wave of crypto distribution is accelerating as XRP has tripled in value, indicating that many are choosing to cash in their profits amid euphoria.
Several objective elements confirm the scale and potentially problematic nature of this dynamic :
Nearly 70 % of realized XRP capitalization was formed between late 2024 and early 2025, meaning the market is now dominated by new entrants ;
The most profitable investors are the ones selling the most, creating a concentration of outgoing flows in a minority of addresses ;
The current behavior of high-gain holders recalls that of 2017, when XRP peaked above 2.50 dollars before a 90 % collapse ;
This configuration, known as an “unbalanced market with strongly winning positions in exit phase,” increases price vulnerability to sharp corrections should volatility return.
These on-chain data suggest that the recent XRP rise has been built on a fragile foundation, dominated by holders inclined to profit-taking. If this situation continues, it could heavily weigh on market dynamics in the coming weeks.
On-Chain Indicators Suggest a Potential 35 % Decline
Besides sales volumes, several technical metrics confirm increasing pressure on XRP’s price. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, which measures whether cryptos are sold at a gain or loss, reveals a concerning trend among holders who acquired their XRP between three and six months ago, that is, just after the start of the bullish rally.
According to Glassnode data, “this cohort sees its SOPR steadily decline”, meaning these investors are starting to sell at a loss even as other segments stabilize their behavior.
Realized price data by holder age provides additional insight. The average purchase price for holders 3–6 months old is estimated at 2.28 dollars, while for holders 6–12 months, it is around 1.35 dollars.
Currently, XRP trades around 2.02 dollars. This means new entrants are near breakeven, while longer-term holders still have a safety margin of nearly 35 % before reaching their profitability level. If the price continues to fall, this last tranche of investors could in turn trigger a wave of selling, exacerbating downward pressure.
In this context, XRP’s weekly chart shows a descending triangle pattern, typically associated with a trend reversal. If this pattern confirms, the price could plunge to the 1.35 to 1.60 dollar zone or even test a floor around 1.30 dollars. However, sustained recovery at the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA 50) could enable XRP to bounce back and target new highs around 3 dollars. The crypto market thus remains suspended on an unstable balance, caught between massive selling pressure and a potential technical reaction.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
