Currency
markets are experiencing their most turbulent period in almost two decades,
with daily swings of 2-6% wiping out entire months of trading profits. Geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East reshape global financial
dynamics.
The
volatility surge is forcing businesses to rethink their foreign exchange
strategies, particularly as traditional correlations break down. The dollar no
longer reliably rises when markets fall, while Japan’s hawkish monetary policy
shift and Europe’s defense spending ramp-up add new variables to an already
complex equation.
“We’re
clearly in the early stages of a prolonged period of uncertainty, which is
driving volatility across financial markets, particularly in FX,” commented Grain,
the Tel Aviv-based fintech that processes over $150 million monthly across more
than 50 currencies.
The
company, co-founded by former Barclays Israel COO Michal Beinish, has seen
transaction volumes grow at an annualized rate of over 3x as businesses
struggle with conventional hedging tools that executives describe as
“expensive, blunt, and often too slow” to handle rapid market shifts.
JPMorgan G7 volatility index
Middle East Conflicts
Ripple Through Global Markets
The ongoing
conflict in Iran is already shifting oil prices and impacting global currency
dynamics, part of what analysts see as a broader trend of rising macro
instability spanning from Ukraine to China and now the Middle East.
For
companies operating across borders, a single currency move triggered by
tariffs, elections, or rate decisions can erase an entire month’s gains.
Traditional hedging approaches are falling short as correlations weaken and
uncertainty spreads to formerly stable G10 currencies.
Dor Golan, CEO of Grain
“While
geopolitical tensions influence overall FX volatility , our growth is primarily
fueled by product-market fit rather than macro events alone,” said Dor
Golan, CEO of Grain.
Cancellation Patterns
Signal Market Stress
The
company’s data reveals telling patterns about how geopolitical stress affects
cross-border commerce. Grain observes cancellation rates of approximately 50%
in travel, 25% in e-commerce, 15% in payment service providers and
marketplaces, and 10% in accounts receivable/payable use cases.
“As
geopolitical tensions rise, we’ve observed a growing correlation between
cancellation rates and FX market volatility,” Golan noted. The company
processes up to 200 million transactions daily for some customers, giving it
unusual visibility into real-time market behavior.
The fintech
uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to assume FX risk in
scenarios traditionally considered unsolvable at scale, absorbing
mark-to-market risk on cancellations so customers don’t need to post collateral
or manage exposure themselves.
AI-Powered Pricing Adapts
to Volatility
Grain’s
pricing engine analyzes real-time behavioral data and live market inputs to
personalize FX rates for individual users. Two users may receive rates that
differ by up to 30% based purely on risk and reliability assessments.
“This
behavioral sensitivity enables us to detect early shifts in volatility and
exploit pricing discrepancies between hedge cost and user risk,” Golan
explained. “It also allows our customers to leverage FX prices that are
typically 1–3% more competitive, and that drive 6–8% lift in sales conversion
and volume at their checkouts.”
The
company’s approach of integrating directly into customer systems provides
visibility into transaction flows, allowing it to aggregate risk across
portfolios and unlock pricing efficiency that can deliver FX savings up to 5%
per transaction.
Businesses Seek New
Solutions
The
prolonged uncertainty is accelerating adoption of automated, data-driven FX
risk management tools as businesses realize that static approaches leave them
vulnerable to market shifts and competitive pressure.
“Prolonged
uncertainty is accelerating the shift toward automated, data-driven, and
AI-powered FX risk management. But more importantly, it’s highlighting FX as a
powerful competitive lever,” Golan said.
The company
serves payment service providers, marketplaces, accounts payable and receivable
platforms, fintechs, and payroll providers with globally distributed customer
bases. Its FX volume spreads fairly evenly across the four major trading
sessions in Tokyo, London, New York, and Sydney, with a skew toward the Western
Hemisphere.
“We’re
seeing rising demand across the board, including in traditionally ‘stable’
currencies like those in the G10. Businesses are realizing that static, legacy
approaches to FX management leave them vulnerable to market shifts and
competitive pressure,” Grain’s CEO concluded.
Currency
markets are experiencing their most turbulent period in almost two decades,
with daily swings of 2-6% wiping out entire months of trading profits. Geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East reshape global financial
dynamics.
The
volatility surge is forcing businesses to rethink their foreign exchange
strategies, particularly as traditional correlations break down. The dollar no
longer reliably rises when markets fall, while Japan’s hawkish monetary policy
shift and Europe’s defense spending ramp-up add new variables to an already
complex equation.
“We’re
clearly in the early stages of a prolonged period of uncertainty, which is
driving volatility across financial markets, particularly in FX,” commented Grain,
the Tel Aviv-based fintech that processes over $150 million monthly across more
than 50 currencies.
The
company, co-founded by former Barclays Israel COO Michal Beinish, has seen
transaction volumes grow at an annualized rate of over 3x as businesses
struggle with conventional hedging tools that executives describe as
“expensive, blunt, and often too slow” to handle rapid market shifts.
JPMorgan G7 volatility index
Middle East Conflicts
Ripple Through Global Markets
The ongoing
conflict in Iran is already shifting oil prices and impacting global currency
dynamics, part of what analysts see as a broader trend of rising macro
instability spanning from Ukraine to China and now the Middle East.
For
companies operating across borders, a single currency move triggered by
tariffs, elections, or rate decisions can erase an entire month’s gains.
Traditional hedging approaches are falling short as correlations weaken and
uncertainty spreads to formerly stable G10 currencies.
Dor Golan, CEO of Grain
“While
geopolitical tensions influence overall FX volatility , our growth is primarily
fueled by product-market fit rather than macro events alone,” said Dor
Golan, CEO of Grain.
Cancellation Patterns
Signal Market Stress
The
company’s data reveals telling patterns about how geopolitical stress affects
cross-border commerce. Grain observes cancellation rates of approximately 50%
in travel, 25% in e-commerce, 15% in payment service providers and
marketplaces, and 10% in accounts receivable/payable use cases.
“As
geopolitical tensions rise, we’ve observed a growing correlation between
cancellation rates and FX market volatility,” Golan noted. The company
processes up to 200 million transactions daily for some customers, giving it
unusual visibility into real-time market behavior.
The fintech
uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to assume FX risk in
scenarios traditionally considered unsolvable at scale, absorbing
mark-to-market risk on cancellations so customers don’t need to post collateral
or manage exposure themselves.
AI-Powered Pricing Adapts
to Volatility
Grain’s
pricing engine analyzes real-time behavioral data and live market inputs to
personalize FX rates for individual users. Two users may receive rates that
differ by up to 30% based purely on risk and reliability assessments.
“This
behavioral sensitivity enables us to detect early shifts in volatility and
exploit pricing discrepancies between hedge cost and user risk,” Golan
explained. “It also allows our customers to leverage FX prices that are
typically 1–3% more competitive, and that drive 6–8% lift in sales conversion
and volume at their checkouts.”
The
company’s approach of integrating directly into customer systems provides
visibility into transaction flows, allowing it to aggregate risk across
portfolios and unlock pricing efficiency that can deliver FX savings up to 5%
per transaction.
Businesses Seek New
Solutions
The
prolonged uncertainty is accelerating adoption of automated, data-driven FX
risk management tools as businesses realize that static approaches leave them
vulnerable to market shifts and competitive pressure.
“Prolonged
uncertainty is accelerating the shift toward automated, data-driven, and
AI-powered FX risk management. But more importantly, it’s highlighting FX as a
powerful competitive lever,” Golan said.
The company
serves payment service providers, marketplaces, accounts payable and receivable
platforms, fintechs, and payroll providers with globally distributed customer
bases. Its FX volume spreads fairly evenly across the four major trading
sessions in Tokyo, London, New York, and Sydney, with a skew toward the Western
Hemisphere.
“We’re
seeing rising demand across the board, including in traditionally ‘stable’
currencies like those in the G10. Businesses are realizing that static, legacy
approaches to FX management leave them vulnerable to market shifts and
competitive pressure,” Grain’s CEO concluded.
