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Quantitative investment firm Starkiller Capital on Friday declared that the crypto cycle has bottomed, calling Bitcoin and Ethereum the clearest end-of-cycle setup it has seen.
Why Starkiller Says the Cycle Has Turned?
Starkiller Capital wrote in a research note that both Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum(CRYPTO: ETH) are back above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since the end of the last cycle, after peak-to-trough drawdowns of 54% and 70% respectively.
Every prior time Bitcoin has reclaimed this level, it has marked the end of the bear market.
The firm closed the entire short side of its book last month, a decision it called the clearest expression of its conviction.
Bitcoin found support exactly at the volume weighted average price (VWAP) from the FTX low, where long-term holders defended that level, and intermediate-term models flipped bullish after a high-volume breakout off a flat 50-day moving average.
At 315 days into the bear market cycle, the timing also falls just inside the average length of prior cycles.
“This was the quietest tape since 2019 in terms of spot volume and volatility, until Wednesday,” Starkiller wrote. “Never short a dull market, especially at the bottom of the cycle,” he added.
What the Firm Expects From Here
Starkiller noted the market may pause near $80,000, roughly the VWAP from the all-time high, where the declining 200-day moving average likely needs to be tested from above before the rally continues.
Geopolitical uncertainty heading into the US midterm elections adds another reason for consolidation at that level.
Beyond Bitcoin, the firm expects high dispersion rather than a broad rally lifting all crypto assets equally.
Revenue-generating protocols with token buybacks like Hyperliquid Strategies(NASDAQ:PURR) have already significantly outperformed assets without real economics this cycle, and Starkiller expects that gap to keep widening.
Most crypto-native tokens without genuine revenue will not repeat their prior cycle performance, the firm argued.
Key Levels to Watch for BTC and ETH
Bitcoin:
- $79,500 — this week’s high, first hurdle
- $82,500 — untouched weekly supply zone since October 2025
- $71,563 — 200-day EMA, breakout retest level to hold
Ethereum:
- $2,447 — today’s high, immediate extension target
- $2,128 — 200-day EMA, just reclaimed and must hold
- $2,000 — 20-day EMA and psychological floor below
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