Key points:
Bitcoin bulls could gain from the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates, given historical tendencies, new analysis says.
Falling Binance open interest with BTC/USD making higher lows could add to potential upside momentum.
Order book liquidity leads analysis to forecast a short squeeze to take out $106,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) should show “bullish tendencies” as the dust settles on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate freeze, research says.
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Thursday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant saw new tailwinds entering for BTC price action.
Bitcoin can gain from Fed policy, Binance OI trend
Bitcoin has historically benefited from periods of Fed rate freezes, and 2025 could provide a particularly bullish climate, CryptoQuant said.
Officials voted unanimously to hold rates at current levels during the Wednesday meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with markets only seeing a shift in Q3.
“Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady during its most recent policy meeting, the Bitcoin market has shown a complex set of signals, especially on Binance,” contributor Amr Taha summarized.
Taha pointed to a divergence between BTC price trajectory and Binance open interest (OI) — the total number of derivatives contracts held by traders, both long and short.
“As seen in the Binance BTC Price & Open Interest Change chart, BTC has formed consistent equal lows slightly above $104,000. This level has acted as a strong demand zone, repeatedly absorbing sell pressure,” he continued.
“However, in contrast, the open interest on Binance has recorded a series of lower lows, showing progressive deleveraging across the derivatives market.”
Despite multiple price support retests, declining OI combined with cool Fed policy typically boosts the Bitcoin bull case.
“The timing of this cleanup coincides with the Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes — a macroeconomic signal that often acts as a tailwind for risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” the Quicktake concluded.
“Historically, BTC has shown bullish tendencies following rate stabilization, especially when paired with signs of liquidation exhaustion and fading open interest.”
BTC shorts tease $106,000 short squeeze
Short-term BTC price forecasts also continue to lean bullish while BTC/USD ranges.
Related: Bitcoin price top metric with 10-year record stays ‘neutral’ at $112K
For monitoring resource CoinGlass, the odds of a “short squeeze” are increasing, with ask liquidity stacking around the $106,000 mark.
GM! 🌞 #BTC Liquidation Heatmap(24 hour)
High leverage liquidity. 🧐🧐🧐
Shorts Look SO JUICY.
Sweep short liquidity first.🧹🧹🧹 pic.twitter.com/AIwKIkzCIr
— CoinGlass (@coinglass_com) June 19, 2025
Earlier, separate liquidity analysis warned that a trip below $104,000 could result in a “rug pull” thanks to order book spoofing.
CoinGlass’s dedicated Derivatives Risk Index (CDRI) circled neutral territory on the day, pointing to slowly-increasing liquidation risk.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
