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8/17/2026 2:51:00 PM
Bitcoin: Implied Volatility Drop Flags Bull Market Start
Bitcoin implied volatility below 40% signals positive mean and median returns ahead, with BTC at $64048.93 on 4h chart showing bullish EMA structure.
Analysis
Bitcoin implied volatility has fallen below 40%, a level that historically precedes positive mean and median performances over subsequent months and often marks the start of a new bull market, according to Bitwise analysis shared by André Dragosch.
The report from Bitwise Europe highlights that such drops in 1-month implied volatility rarely persist and typically resolve upward, supporting a constructive BTC price prediction and broader <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/sec-regulation-crypto-vote-delayed-what-it-means/” title=”SEC Regulation Crypto Vote Delayed: What It Means”>crypto market outlook.
On the 4h chart BTC trades at $64048.93 inside a bullish trend with EMA50 at $63571.46 and EMA200 at $63698.14 acting as concrete support; price is testing upper Bollinger resistance at $63733.78 while MACD shows a golden cross at 6.47 and RSI sits neutral at 66.12, suggesting a healthy retracement toward the 50-EMA before continuation.
BitcoinBTCcryptocurrencyBull Marketimplied volatility
European Head of Research @ Bitwise – #Bitcoin – Macro – PhD in Financial History – Not investment advice – Views strictly mine – Beware of impersonators.
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Source: <a href="https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-implied-volatility-drop-flags-bull-market-start” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>blockchain.news