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Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone, citing a recent report, said Bitcoin’s disappointing “dud” performance against U.S. Treasuries since late 2024 may signal that its prime has passed.
McGlone said Bitcoin may be losing ground to U.S. government bonds at a critical turning point, with broad implications across asset classes. Using a baseline of 100 at the end of 2024, he said the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is showing signs of weakening against the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). As of Oct. 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio stood at 81 and has failed to stay above the 100 baseline since the fourth quarter of 2025, even though IBIT has shown roughly four times the volatility of TLT, he said. McGlone added that 2024 marked a watershed year with the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and President Donald Trump’s shift from a crypto opponent to an enthusiastic supporter. He said Bitcoin’s underwhelming performance versus U.S. Treasuries since then could be a sign that its peak era is over. McGlone also said U.S. Treasuries are among the most broadly leveraged markets in the world, and their roughly two-year outperformance against Bitcoin could foreshadow what lies ahead if Bitcoin remains below $80,000.