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Solana has surged over 14,700% since 2020, yet it currently sits 65% below its all-time high with ETF outflows mounting and supply expanding. The path to four digits is narrower than most bulls admit.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
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ForSolana(CRYPTO:SOL) to reach $1,000, the price would need to increase nearly tenfold from about $101. The idea of SOL hitting $1,000 keeps surfacing in forums andlong-term predictionsbecause it’s a straightforward, round number, and Solana has previously experienced tremendous price surges.
Since April 2020, when Solana was valued at just $0.69, it has skyrocketed over 14,700%. However, it has faced recent challenges, dropping 13.3% in October and briefly dipping below $99. It trades 65.6% below its $293 peak on January 19, 2025. So, can Solana ever hit $1,000, and what would need to happen for that to be possible?
Solana Would Need a $590 Billion Market Cap at $1,000
A cryptocurrency’s market cap is calculated by multiplying its price by its circulating supply. Solana has about 589.8 million SOL in circulation. This means that if SOL hit $1,000, its market cap would need to be around $589.8 billion.
Solana’s market cap is approximately $59.5 billion, making it the seventh-largest cryptocurrency. At $1,000, SOL would represent 2.07 times Ethereum’s market cap of $285.2 billion and about 37% of Bitcoin’s $1.6 trillion market cap. To reach this figure, Solana would need to surpass every coin except Bitcoin, something it has never done.
Moreover, the increasing supply of Solana complicates this goal. SOL has no maximum supply, and staking inflation generates new tokens each year to reward holders who secure the network. With total supply already around 636.4 million SOL, the market value needed for a $1,000 price could exceed $589.8 billion by the time SOL gets there.
ETF Demand for Solana Has Stalled Since September
A spot ETF allows investors to gain exposure to a cryptocurrency by buying into a fund that holds the asset directly. As of October 22,U.S. spot Solana ETFshave around $1.6 billion in total net assets, with $1.54 billion in cumulative net inflows.
On September 25, these funds saw their largest single-day inflow: $86.7 million. However, despite this surge, SOL’s price fell from approximately $122 that day to about $101 by October 25—a drop of 17.3%.
Between October 5 and October 22, the fundssaw net outflowsalmost every day, with the largest outflow on October 16, which cost $12.7 million. Cumulative inflows have dwindled to $1.54 billion from $1.62 billion on September 29.
Alpenglow Cut Solana’s Finality to 150 Milliseconds
On October 21, Anza, a Solana developer, released an upgrade known asAlpenglow. The upgrade reduced transaction finality—the time it takes for a transaction to become irreversible—to about 150 milliseconds. Anza described this as Solana’s most significant consensus upgrade since the network began in 2020.
While faster transaction times might attract trading firms and payment apps to Solana, SOL’s price still dipped below $99 that same week, suggesting the upgrade hasn’t yet noticeably affected its value.
J.P. Morgan Brought Two Tokenized Funds to Solana
On October 22, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, part ofJPMorgan Chase(NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction), announced that it had expanded its My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY) and a second fund, JLTXX, onto the Solana network. The JLTXX fund aims to support stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act, a U.S. stablecoin regulation.
These big-bank initiatives could increase institutional activity on Solana. However, SOL still closed lower for the week, and J.P. Morgan did not disclose the funds’ asset size on Solana.
Could Solana Ever Hit $1,000?
We believe that SOL is unlikely to hit $1,000 before 2028, putting the likelihood below 10% in that timeframe. A more realistic prospect may span several years, since SOL would need to significantly outperform Ethereum while its supply keeps expanding.
If SOL doesn’t surpass its $293 record by December 31, 2027, the $ 1,000-before-2030 target becomes even less likely. Investors hoping for this milestone might experience further declines, similar to the 13.3% drop observed in October.
For SOL to see a positive future, ETF flows would need to reverse, pushing cumulative inflows back above $1.62 billion. It would also need to recover its year-opening price of about $124, break through its record of $293, and surpass Ethereum’s market cap of $285.2 billion. If ETF outflows continue, SOL may end uptrading more closely with Bitcoin, making its July 27 price of about $74 a more relevant benchmark.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.’s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn’t reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
Source: 247wallst.com