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Binance Research said four of five historical cases similar to Bitcoin’s 47% rebound from its July low went on to retest the bottom within a short period.
In a recent report, Binance Research examined cases in which Bitcoin rose at least 40% from a cycle low while still trading more than 25% below its all-time high. It said there were seven such cases between 2011 and 2023, and after excluding two instances in which BTC had fallen 75.5% and 67.1% from its all-time high, four of the remaining five retested the low within 43 days. The only exception was in July 2021.
Binance Research said the current rebound is the second attempt from a similar position in cycle terms, meaning the size of the decline so far alone cannot rule out a retest of the low. It added that the scenario is a probability estimate based on past cases, not a prediction.
It also said a typical October upswing could support the current rebound’s continuation, while weakness would suggest there is not enough momentum for further gains.
According to CoinMarketCap, BTC was trading at $85,981.55, up 0.04%, at the time of writing.