Bitcoin Could More Than Triple to $230,000 by 2035, Ned Davis Research Says

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Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by 2030 and $230,000 by 2035, according to long-term projections from Ned Davis Research. Chief alternatives strategist John LaForge outlined seven valuation methods, with network adoption—measured through wallet holders, active addresses, and ETF exposure—as his preferred framework. He expressed skepticism toward the stock-to-flow model, arguing it overemphasizes supply constraints while ignoring whether demand is actually expanding. The projections arrive as Bitcoin trades near $76,300, almost identical to the $75,500 average Q2 production cost for listed miners reported by CoinShares. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $450 million in net outflows on September 15, the largest daily withdrawal since June, followed by $296 million the next day. Reaching $170,000 would require a 123% gain, while $230,000 implies a 201% increase.

Key Elements

Bitcoin is changing hands near $76,300, but a new long-term analysis argues the world’s largest cryptocurrency could climb to roughly $170,000 by 2030 and $230,000 by 2035. The projections come from Ned Davis Research and rest on a framework that treats expanding user adoption, not the token’s capped supply, as the decisive driver of future value.

John LaForge, chief alternatives strategist at the Florida-based investment research firm, laid out seven valuation methods that investors commonly apply to Bitcoin: network adoption, comparisons to gold, money-supply growth, production costs, portfolio risk, adoption cycles, and the stock-to-flow model. His preferred lens is network adoption, which tracks on-chain and market-based signals such as the number of wallet holders, exposure through exchange-traded funds, addresses carrying balances, and daily active users.

That focus puts demand squarely at the center of the debate. Bitcoin’s 21 million coin cap is already known to every market participant, so LaForge’s argument is that price appreciation will depend on whether new investors and users actually join the network, rather than on scarcity alone.

“Understanding Bitcoin’s value requires more than just observing its limited supply; it’s crucial to consider whether new investors and users are flocking to the network,” he said.

That reasoning explains his skepticism toward stock-to-flow, a widely cited model that compares existing supply to newly issued coins. The approach has historically produced extremely bullish price targets based on halving cycles, but LaForge contends that demand has not expanded forcefully enough to support those figures.

Production Costs Are Pressing Against Spot Prices

A separate data point is adding near-term tension to the market. CoinShares estimates that publicly listed miners faced a weighted average ex-tax cash cost of about $75,500 per Bitcoin in the second quarter, a figure almost identical to where the cryptocurrency currently trades.

Production cost does not function as a hard price floor, but sustained trading below that level can squeeze mining companies, potentially forcing them to liquidate reserves or scale back operations. Bitcoin’s recent test of the $75,000 area therefore carries significance beyond technical chart levels—it sits right at the line where mining economics start to deteriorate.

The following table summarizes the seven valuation approaches LaForge outlined and what each one measures:

ETF Outflows Contrast With the Long-Term Outlook

The immediate backdrop is considerably less optimistic than the 2035 target. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $450 million in net withdrawals on September 15, the largest single-day outflow since June. Another $296 million left the products the following day, according to fund flow data.

The reversal stands in sharp contrast to August, when spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.52 billion in net inflows. The sudden shift reflects broader caution across crypto markets as investors weigh regulatory developments and ongoing price volatility.

LaForge’s framework suggests that tension between short-term flows and long-term valuation may be the most important part of the story. Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed and predictable; the unknown variable is whether adoption continues to broaden across retail investors, institutions, and portfolio allocations.

At the current price near $76,300, Bitcoin would need to gain roughly 123% to hit $170,000 and about 201% to reach $230,000. Those targets are not guarantees, and LaForge’s analysis does not present them as such. Instead, the research offers a set of quantifiable metrics—wallet growth, active addresses, ETF exposure, and adoption trends—that investors can monitor to judge whether the cryptocurrency is actually progressing toward those levels.

The emphasis on measurable indicators rather than a standalone price call marks a departure from the more speculative forecasts that often circulate in crypto markets. Whether Bitcoin ultimately reaches six-figure territory, the report suggests, will be visible in the data long before it shows up on a price chart.

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Source: finance.biggo.com