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Compiled by: Blockchain for Beginners
Ethereum has been unusually calm.
After rising over 30% in August, ETH has been trading in a narrow range during early September, repeatedly testing the $2,500 level but lacking the momentum to break upward.
Beneath the calm price movement, the Ethereum market is far from tranquil.
Asset management firms continue to buy ETH. Exchange reserves continue to decline. ETF demand has slightly cooled but overall remains positive. Meanwhile, developers are actively preparing for major upgrades to Ethereum’s infrastructure—the Glamsterdam upgrade is approaching, and the longer-term Hegotá roadmap is beginning to take shape.
Therefore, despite ETH being in a consolidation phase, several key pieces are falling into place rapidly.
$2,500 is the key battleground being contested by longs and shorts.
ETH has recently been trading between $2,480 and $2,520.
Repeated attempts to reclaim $2,500 indicate that buyers are still defending this psychological level, but resistance in the $2,525 to $2,535 range is capping upside potential. Beyond this, $2,550 remains a more critical resistance level.
If 2,550 USD can be effectively broken through, it may bring 2,600 USD back into view and open the path to the 3,000 USD area if momentum returns.
The downside risk is equally clear.
The first support zone is between $2,475 and $2,485. If this zone is breached, the price may decline further to $2,430–$2,445.
Although some technical charts have shown a golden cross, which is typically regarded as a long-term bullish signal, technical indicators alone cannot reverse weak market participation.
This is particularly crucial now, as investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting scheduled for September 15 to 16.
In the long term, the current price prediction scenario for Ethereum largely depends on whether ETH can transform this consolidation phase into a sustained breakout, rather than just a fleeting rebound.
A noteworthy trend: retail investors are exiting and cashing out, while whales continue to accumulate.
One of the most prominent characteristics in today’s market appears between holders of different scales.
Wallet addresses holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH reportedly sold approximately 307,000 ETH last week.
Meanwhile, whale addresses purchased approximately 82,000 ETH.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the market is turning bearish; it may simply indicate that some investors chose to take profits after the August rally, while large funds are building longer-term positions.
BitMine Immersion Technologies is the most typical example.
The company again purchased approximately 28,086 ETH (valued at around $69 million to $70 million), bringing its total holdings to approximately 5.93 million ETH, according to reports.
This accounts for nearly 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply.
Such a massive scale is hard for the market to ignore. Even though its book value remains below its average purchase cost, BitMine continues to buy, and the vast majority of its ETH holdings are staked.
This is completely different from a short-term trading strategy.
Another whale establishes a short hedge position.
Abraxas Capital has also been very active recently.
According to reports, the institution bought approximately 13,000 ETH on the spot market, valued at around $32 million.
The reason behind it is particularly noteworthy: it is reportedly part of the purpose of this spot purchase to hedge a substantial short position of approximately 141,000 ETH on Hyperliquid.
In other words, not every large purchase represents pure bullish sentiment.
In other dynamic developments, an early Ethereum holder sold approximately 11,023 ETH through Wintermute, while Sun Zhengchen continued transferring ETH assets after withdrawing additional funds from Lido.
The conclusion is clear: whale activity is increasing, but the direction is inconsistent.
Some whales are selling, some are accumulating, and others are hedging.
ETF inflow momentum has significantly slowed.
The spot Ethereum ETF market has shown a similar divergence.
Weekly inflows reportedly dropped to approximately $218 million, a significant decline from the previous week’s $824 million, with some daily trades even showing net outflows.
This slowdown is evident.
Nevertheless, it is still too early to attribute the slowdown in ETF inflows directly to a disappearance of institutional interest.
Because another supply-side indicator is moving in a positive direction.
Within just 48 hours, more than 116,000 ETH flowed out of exchanges. A reduction in circulating supply on exchanges means reduced immediate selling pressure, although this does not guarantee a price increase with certainty.
In addition, institutional infrastructure is steadily expanding. Standard Chartered Bank is reported to have expanded its physically settled ETH spot trading services for institutional clients in the UAE.
Thus, the current market reflects a coexistence of localized demand slowdown and steady expansion of institutional infrastructure.
The most compelling story about Ethereum may not be about its price.
If the price movement seems dull, Ethereum’s technical development roadmap is quite the opposite.
The Ethereum Foundation protocol cluster has recently released a unified prioritization of 62 proposed EIPs for the planned Hegoata upgrade.
Two of the proposals have been listed as highest-priority changes:
EIP-7805 (also known as FOCIL) aims to enhance censorship resistance by enforcing transaction packaging.
EIP-8141 (also known as Frame Transactions) aims to resolve Ethereum’s long-standing user experience pain point: the requirement to hold native ETH to pay for transaction fees.
This proposal may, in the future, allow users to pay gas fees directly using stablecoins such as USDC or USDT, while also supporting native account abstraction and new verification methods.
This will significantly lower the barrier for ordinary users to interact with Ethereum.
Behind this roadmap lies a longer-term goal: building quantum-resistant capabilities for Ethereum Layer 1, with December 2029 currently set as a key milestone.
Glamsterdam is upgrading to the next big test
Hegotá is still in the long-term planning phase.
Before this, Ethereum will迎来 its next major upgrade—Glamsterdam, currently targeted for Q4 2026.
This upgrade is highly focused on optimizing the overall performance of Layer 1.
Developers are tackling challenges such as embedded proposer-builder separation (ePBS), block-level access lists, gas re-pricing, and increasing the gas limit.
One key objective is to raise the Gas limit baseline to approximately 200 million, which, if successfully implemented, will significantly increase the throughput capacity of the Ethereum network.
The Sepolia testnet fork is expected to occur on September 28 or early October.
This means the coming weeks are crucial not only for short-term traders but also serve as a key window to assess Ethereum’s progress toward its mainnet roadmap.
The ecosystem is undergoing diversified evolution.
While the core technology of the mainnet evolves, the Ethereum ecosystem is also undergoing a reshuffling.
Lido has launched the testnet for the 0x02 Community Staking Module, designed to support compounding validator nodes with balances of up to 2,048 ETH.
If implemented on the mainnet, this change will significantly improve the capital efficiency of staking operators.
In contrast, Scroll has chosen a distinctly different development path.
This Ethereum Layer 2 project has announced plans to gradually transition from a general-purpose public chain to an application-specific network built around its Compass AI ecosystem.
The transition period is expected to last approximately nine months. Scroll also plans to migrate the SCR Token to the Ethereum mainnet while maintaining its existing supply and token economic model.
In addition, Trezor has added support for ERC-7730 Clear Signing, aiming to help users better understand the specific details of an operation before approving a blockchain transaction.
What is the market waiting for?
Ethereum currently lacks a super catalyst capable of determining the next phase’s directional movement.
Instead, several smaller forces are pulling the market in different directions:
Retail investors are selling.
A financial asset company is accumulating.
ETF net inflows have slowed.
The exchange’s coin holdings continue to decline.
ETH is hovering around $2,500.
Ethereum core developers are preparing to implement the most significant底层 network upgrade in recent years.
This provides traders with a clear short-term price chart:
Maintaining a firm hold above $2,550 would significantly strengthen the bullish case; however, a break below $2,475 could force the market to turn its attention to the $2,430–$2,445 range.
Ethereum may continue to consolidate until these key levels are broken.
However, the lack of significant price movement should not be mistaken for a dormant underlying ecosystem.
The next major rally for ETH may ultimately not depend on a single blockbuster news event, but rather on which of the above interwoven trends gains complete dominance.
Source: www.kucoin.com