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<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/463m-flees-bitcoin-etf-just-before-a-crucial-fed-call/” title=”$463M Flees Bitcoin ETF Just Before A Crucial Fed Call”>Bitcoin added 2.3% to $79,164 and set its session high in New York rather than overnight, while the S&P 500 held a 0.3% loss. Seventy-nine of the 121 largest non-stablecoin tokens rose. The Senate votes at 2:15 p.m. Tuesday on whether to take up the CLARITY Act, and Polymarket traders price a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase on Wednesday at 85.5%.
By:The Defiant Team•
Markets
Crypto extended its gains through the U.S. session on Monday while equities and gold stayed lower, ahead of a Senate vote on market structure legislation Tuesday afternoon and a Federal Reserve decision Wednesday that prediction-market traders expect to raise rates.
Two dated federal events fall inside 48 hours, and both resolve before Thursday. Cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 ripens at 2:15 p.m. Tuesday and needs 60 votes. The Federal Open Market Committee releases its decision Wednesday afternoon. Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott released what they call the final text of the bill on Monday morning, hours before the Senate convened at 3 p.m.
Bitcoin last changed hands at $79,164, up 2.3% over 24 hours and down 0.1% over seven days, CoinGecko data shows. Coinbase recorded a 24-hour range of $76,347.27 to $79,264.91, with the high set after the New York open. Ether was at $2,541.82, up 1.3% on the day and 2% on the week. XRP added 7.7% to $1.46, Solana 2.4% to $103.69 and BNB 0.9% to $727.46. Total crypto market value stood at $2.773 trillion, up 2.3% over 24 hours, on $77.6 billion of volume, with bitcoin dominance at 57.2%, CoinGecko data shows. Seventy-nine of the 121 largest non-stablecoin tokens rose and 40 fell.
“The Clarity vote is Tuesday and the Fed is Wednesday. Two binary events in 48 hours with volatility this cheap. That setup never lasts long,” said Maxime Seiler, chief executive and co-founder of options market maker STS Digital, in commentary emailed to reporters on Monday morning.
Two Votes In Forty-Eight Hours
The Senate agreed in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8 to let the cloture motion ripen on a fixed clock. “Notwithstanding Rule XXII, at 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the cloture motion with respect to the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 … ripen,” reads the unanimous consent agreement printed in the Senate Calendar of Business for Monday. The Daily Digest for that session states that “a vote on cloture will occur at 2:15 p.m., on Tuesday, September 15, 2026,” according to the Congressional Record.
Majority Leader John Thune filed the motion with 16 Republican co-signers. The Senate took no action on the bill between Aug. 8 and Monday, Government Publishing Office bill status records show, and its last recorded roll call was Vote No. 231 on Aug. 8, according to the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats, so seven Democrats carry the motion. The Defiant reported that seven-Democrat math when the bill reached the floor calendar in June.
Lummis, Boozman and Scott posted the text Monday. The release says the draft carries 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats, adds ethics language reflecting substantially all of the Tillis-Gallego proposal including a role for state attorneys general, gives the Treasury Secretary authority to prevent deposit flight tied to payment stablecoins, and edits the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act to shield developers from money transmission registration.
“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, said in the release. “A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets. Democrats got what they wanted; now they need to take yes for an answer.”
Seven Senate Democrats who negotiated the bill issued a statement in July saying the Republican text “falls short” and naming ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity as areas needing work. None of their offices has posted a response to the September drafts. The Defiant reported on the Sept. 10 substitute last week.
Polymarket priced the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 29.5% on Monday afternoon, on $16.6 million of cumulative volume, against 18% on Friday.
Traders Price A Hike
Polymarket put a quarter-point increase at Wednesday’s decision at 85.5% and no change at 14.5% on $156.9 million of volume, against 83.5% and 15.5% earlier Monday. A quarter-point cut traded at 0.25%.
The FOMC meets Sept. 15-16 and publishes a Summary of Economic Projections alongside the statement. Traders made an increase the favorite on Aug. 31, after Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, when Polymarket priced it at 55.5%, which The Defiant covered at the time. The odds fell to 43% on Sept. 3 after Governor Christopher Waller signaled a hold, then rose again after the August payrolls report.
The 10-year par yield closed Friday at 4.96% and the 30-year at 5.35%, against 4.80% and 5.25% on Sept. 8, Treasury data shows. The two-year closed at 4.63%. Monday’s yields publish after the close.
Crude Gives Back Its Spike
The S&P 500 traded at 7,632.53 at 2:31 p.m. ET, down 0.3% from Friday’s close of 7,656.98, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,280.37, down 0.2% Both traded lower through the morning, the S&P 500 at 7,608.07 and the Nasdaq at 26,134.68 at 11:24 a.m. ET. Gold fell 1.3% to $4,351.10 an ounce
Crude gave back most of an overnight spike. West Texas Intermediate traded at $101.42 a barrel, up 1.4% on the day after reaching $103.55 in the morning, and Brent at $105.81, up 1.2% from $108.53. WTI is 5.6% above its Sept. 9 close of $96.05. The Defiant covered Brent’s move through $100 last week.
Seiler tied the oil move to monetary policy. “Oil above $107 hits everything: consumer wallets, industrial margins, equity multiples. But oil is a symptom, not the cause,” he said. “Volatility is still cheap, so traders use delta replacement and topside structures to stay long in a risk-controlled way, and sell calls in alts that ran hard.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 57 on Monday, down from 61 on Sunday and 71 a week ago It has read greed on every day of the past two weeks
DeFi total value locked was flat over 24 hours at $88.51 billion and down 0.41% over seven days, DefiLlama data shows. Stablecoin supply stood at $311.67 billion, down 0.11% over seven days and up 1.25% over 30 days, a net contraction of about $350 million on the week. Neither followed the price move.
Strategy Buys Nothing Again
Strategy bought no bitcoin for a second consecutive week. The company reported no purchases and no sales between Sept. 8 and Sept. 13 in an 8-K filed Monday, leaving holdings at 845,050 BTC acquired for $63.73 billion, an average of about $75,412 per coin. The prior week’s filing also recorded zero purchases. Strategy repurchased 1,420,467 STRC shares for $139.3 million over the week and held $1.30 billion in cash.
Bitcoin trades 5% above that average cost basis.
Strive bought 469 BTC at an average of about $77,954 between Sept. 8 and Sept. 11, taking its holdings to exactly 25,000 BTC from 24,531, according to an 8-K filed Monday. The company reported $204.2 million of cash.
BitMine Immersion reported 5.96 million ether worth about $15 billion, of which 5.07 million is staked, plus 212 BTC and $549 million of cash and marketable securities, in an exhibit filed Monday. The company says it added 27,180 ETH over the past week and projects $334 million of annualized staking revenue.
Funds Sell Bitcoin, Buy Ether
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a fourth consecutive day of outflows on Friday, at $13.2 million, taking the four-session week to $462.7 million of net redemptions BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $19.2 million of Friday’s outflow. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $55.22 billion
Spot ether ETFs took in $216.4 million on Friday and $196.9 million over the week, the largest single day in the 10 sessions Farside lists. Cumulative net inflows stand at $13.38 billion.
Monday’s figures publish after the U.S. close.
XRP And Zcash Lead
XRP was the largest gainer among the 10 biggest tokens and traded $3.15 billion over 24 hours, reaching $1.4688 on Coinbase. No project news accompanied the move: Ripple’s most recent press release is dated Sept. 10 and covers an enterprise treasury product, its Insights post from Sept. 11 is a stablecoin explainer, and the XRP Ledger blog has not posted since Aug. 20. No spot XRP fund began trading or was approved, and a search of SEC EDGAR filings mentioning XRP between Sept. 11 and Monday returned no listing registration.
Zcash reached a $20.13 billion market value, the tenth largest, on $1.26 billion of daily volume. Its listed vehicle is three weeks old. The Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca on Aug. 25 and said on Sept. 8 that assets under management had “grown to more than $500 million,” that ZCSH options began trading on NYSE Arca the same day, and that DCG International Investments had contributed 85,705.32563297 ZEC for shares worth about $100 million, according to an 8-K exhibit. The Defiant covered the conversion filing in November 2025. Monero, the other large privacy token and one with no U.S. listed vehicle, fell 4.1% on Monday.
The Stellar Development Foundation has scheduled a mainnet validator vote on Protocol 28 for Sept. 16 at 1700 UTC, according to its upgrade guide, published Aug. 12. Its press page carries nothing since Sept. 3. PancakeSwap’s most recent post is its August Kitchen Report, published Sept. 9, on the project’s blog. Neither NEAR nor Pendle published an announcement in the window.
Ribbita by Virtuals gained 30.9% on $3.8 million of volume against a $260 million market value and is left out of the table.
Falcon Finance Falls Alone
Falcon Finance was the largest decliner of the day and holds a 5.7% weekly gain. Its news page carries nothing since Aug. 31 and its documentation publishes no dated unlock calendar. Falcon’s own posts put the token launch at Sept. 29, 2025, with “around 2.34 billion (23.4% of the total) circulating at the Token Generation Event,” and set a “1-year cliff and 3-year vesting” for team, early contributors and investors, according to its tokenomics post.
Tezos and Raydium hold the two largest weekly gains in the table, at 15.1% and 19.8%. Bitway is up 54.1% over seven days, the largest weekly gain among the 150 biggest tokens.
Filecoin reversed. It traded 5.3% higher at midday, then ended the afternoon 2.4% lower at $0.9662, on $337 million of volume against an $799 million market value. The Filecoin Foundation’s blog has not posted in September.
Provenance Blockchain’s HASH fell 4.7% on $2,166 of 24-hour volume against a $417 million market value, and MemeCore’s M fell 4.2% on $2.3 million against a $2.5 billion market value, a turnover ratio of 0.09%. Both are left out of the table.
Pudgy Penguins, Dash, Celestia, Worldcoin, Arbitrum and Bitcoin Cash hold the largest seven-day declines among the 150 biggest tokens, at between 14.6% and 16.3%. Each traded within 1.5 percentage points of flat on Monday.
Prices and market data as of 2:39 p.m. ET on Sept. 14, 2026.
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Source: thedefiant.io