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Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 if the S&P 500 undergoes a 20% correction, citing the cryptocurrency’s high correlation with U.S. equities. He noted that while Bitcoin’s returns over the past five years have been similar to the S&P 500, its volatility has been roughly three times higher, resulting in poor risk-adjusted returns. He also pointed to stretched U.S. equity valuations, roughly 70 basis points of rate hikes priced into federal funds futures, and resistance near $80,000 as additional downside catalysts. With Bitcoin currently trading around $77,300, a decline to $10,000 would require an additional drop of approximately 87%.
Key Elements
Bitcoin could plunge to $10,000 (approximately 13 million won) in an extreme bear market due to its high correlation with U.S. equities, according to a warning from Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an analysis released on the 13th (local time) that Bitcoin is rapidly shedding its image as an independent “digital gold” asset and now trading like a proxy for high-risk equities.
He projected that the S&P 500 falling roughly 20% and remaining at that level for a sustained period could be enough to drive Bitcoin toward $10,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $77,300 (approximately 100 million won), that would require an additional decline of about 87%.
McGlone identified three signals that increase the likelihood of a Bitcoin downturn. First, while Bitcoin’s returns over the past five years have largely tracked the S&P 500, its volatility has been approximately three times higher. His argument is that Bitcoin offers limited investment appeal from a risk-adjusted return standpoint—delivering equity-like returns while forcing investors to endure far greater volatility.
Second, he pointed to U.S. equity valuations being excessively stretched relative to long-term trend lines. In particular, he noted that the S&P 500 has deng a meaningful correction could occur. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly tightly coupled to equity market movements, a sustained stock market decline could deliver an amplified shock to Bitcoin
Finally, he cited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. With federal funds futures pricing in roughly 70 basis points (0.70 percentage point) of rate hikes one year out, he explained that a resumption of Fed tightening would create a more challenging environment for risk assets broadly.
McGlone assessed that Bitcoin has effectively become the “beta” for the entire cryptocurrency market. In a structure where millions of other digital assets compete for the same investor capital, if investors begin reducing their exposure to risky crypto assets, the downward pressure on Bitcoin could intensify.
He also interpreted Bitcoin’s recent rebound as a warning sign. A rally that has run into resistance near $80,000 (approximately 110 million won) may represent a temporary bounce before further declines rather than confirmation of a new bull market.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 (approximately 170 million won) in October last year before falling roughly 38.6%. If McGlone’s $10,000 scenario materializes, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would shrink from its current level of approximately $1.55 trillion (approximately 2,081.5 trillion won) to around $200 billion (approximately 268.6 trillion won).
That said, this outlook represents the most extreme bearish scenario. McGlone’s bearish calls on Bitcoin have been made multiple times in the past, and the market has frequently moved contrary to his expectations. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s trajectory could diverge significantly depending on variables such as the depth and duration of any equity correction and the Fed’s actual policy path.
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Source: finance.biggo.com