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<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/bitcoin-price-has-to-fall-just-750-to-erase-a-whales-70-million-btc-long/” title=”Bitcoin Price Has to Fall Just $750 to Erase a Whale's $70 Million BTC Long”>Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) hit $79,000 on surprisingly hot inflation data Friday, yet remains roughly 38% below its October 2025 record of $126,198.
And yet, Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen expects the cryptocurrency to break its four-year cycle and reach a new high in 2026.
“I definitely think we’re going to end the year positive,” Rasmussen told Cointelegraph Thursday.
“New all-time highs is a little bit harder of a reach,” he added, pointing to improving fund flows, corporate treasury purchases and a potential fourth-quarter rally.
Bitwise predicted in December that Bitcoin would set a record in 2026, breaking its historical pattern of three positive years followed by one down year.
The asset manager also forecast that exchange-traded funds would buy more than 100% of the new Bitcoin, Ethereum(CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana(CRYPTO: SOL) supply.
Why Bitcoin Fell Short Thus Far
Rasmussen blamed Bitcoin’s 2026 weakness on several factors:
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical conflict increased inflation pressure.
- Interest-rate expectations shifted from cuts toward potential hikes.
- Investors moved capital from crypto into artificial intelligence stocks and major equity offerings.
- Bitcoin ETFs suffered heavy redemptions during the summer downturn.
That trend started reversing in August.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion during the month, their strongest result of 2026, while Bitcoin gained about 25%. The inflows reduced year-to-date ETF outflows from $5.29 billion to $1.77 billion.
What Could Drive the Next Move?
Rasmussen identified lower rates, easing Middle East tensions and less tariff uncertainty as potential fourth-quarter catalysts.
He also pointed to growing Wall Street interest in tokenization and stablecoins. The GENIUS Act’s expected January 2027 implementation could give banks and payment companies clearer rules for issuing and using regulated stablecoins.5
Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative has also returned after U.S. federal debt crossed $40 trillion. Supporters see Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against currency debasement, although tighter financial conditions remain a near-term risk.
$1 Million Bitcoin By 2030?
Rasmussen expects Bitcoin to trade above $1 million by 2030, driven by institutional access, regulatory clarity and portfolio allocations through wealth-management platforms.
He said advisers often need roughly eight meetings over two years before making their first crypto allocation.
That timeline suggests firms that recently gained access to Bitcoin ETFs may still be early in their adoption process.
The immediate test is whether August’s ETF rebound continues as Bitcoin approaches its prior record.
A sustained return of institutional flows would support Bitwise’s broken-cycle thesis, while renewed outflows would keep the traditional four-year pattern alive.
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and
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