is this pullback setting up the next ETH surge?

Ethereum falls below $2,500: is this pullback setting up the next ETH surge?

Ethereum ($ETH) has slightly dipped below $2,500 on Thursday as modest buying activity in the spot market helped counter subdued demand across derivatives.

Although $ETH maintains a bullish technical structure, declining futures participation and recent outflows from US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds suggest traders remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally.

Ethereum futures show limited leverage and weak conviction

Significant leverage has yet to return to Ethereum’s derivatives market following the short squeeze that pushed $ETH toward $2,500 in late August.

Open interest, which represents the value of outstanding derivatives contracts, has fallen by approximately 1 million $ETH since the cryptocurrency began recovering in July.

Measured in US dollars, however, Ethereum open interest has increased 54% to $33.7 billion since July 1.

$ETH’s price rose by a stronger 58% over the same period, indicating that much of the increase in open interest’s dollar value resulted from price appreciation rather than fresh capital entering the futures market.

The price increase outpacing open-interest growth points to limited conviction among leveraged traders and could leave the rally dependent on continued spot demand.

Ethereum’s Net Taker Volume has produced several negative readings over recent days, highlighting an ongoing battle between buyers and sellers in the perpetual futures market.

The metric calculates the difference between market-order buying and selling volume.

Negative readings indicate that aggressive sellers have gained the upper hand, while positive figures reflect stronger taker-buying activity.

The inconsistent readings reinforce the view that derivatives traders remain hesitant to establish heavily leveraged bullish positions.

Conditions appear slightly more favorable in Ethereum’s spot market. Exchange netflow data shows withdrawals have exceeded deposits over the past week, although only by a modest margin.

Net withdrawals are generally considered constructive because they reduce the amount of $ETH immediately available for sale on centralized exchanges.

The latest figures suggest buyers retain a slight advantage, but accumulation has not yet reached levels that would signal overwhelming demand.

Meanwhile, US spot Ethereum ETFs started the week weakly, recording $24.3 million in net outflows on Tuesday.

Ethereum price consolidates between $2,431 and $2,544

Ethereum has remained inside a narrow trading range between support at $2,431 and resistance at $2,544.

According to Coinglass, $ETH recorded $52.6 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours.

Long positions accounted for $44.3 million of that total, suggesting the recent price action placed slightly more pressure on bullish traders.

Despite the muted derivatives activity, Ethereum’s daily chart retains a constructive near-term outlook. $ETH continues to trade above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.

The 20-day EMA near $2,403 provides immediate dynamic support, while the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator both sit in the low 60s.

These readings indicate sustained buying momentum without signaling extremely overbought conditions.

Ethereum’s first major support lies at $2,431, followed by the 20-day EMA around $2,403.

If sellers push $ETH below these levels, the 200-day EMA at $2,254 could become the next important floor. Deeper support is located at $2,172 and $2,111.

On the upside, $ETH must break decisively above $2,544 to strengthen its bullish momentum. The next resistance levels would then sit at $2,626 and $2,786.

A sustained move through this resistance zone could confirm a continuation of Ethereum’s broader recovery.

Until then, $ETH may remain confined to its current consolidation range as traders wait for stronger demand.

Source: cryptonews.net