Don't want to trade it yourself?
Our desk runs DEX portfolios on profit share.
Add to Google Preferred Sources
Bitcoin held above $79,000 through the Labor Day weekend even as stronger U.S. jobs data lifted Federal Reserve rate-hike odds from 50% to 60%. Futures open interest fell 7.5% to $53.44 billion and funding rates dropped sharply, signaling broad deleveraging ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report. Exchange reserves declined by roughly 8,073 BTC to 2,703,752 BTC, falling below levels recorded before the Coldcard hack in late June. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed much of that supply, recording $904.6 million in inflows over two days, including $730 million on Sept. 3, the largest single-day tally since January. Analysts see reduced leverage and tightening exchange supply as factors that could amplify an upside move if inflation data comes in softer than expected, while a hotter print could push Bitcoin toward the $76,000 to $77,000 range.
Key Elements
Bitcoin held above $79,000 through the Labor Day holiday weekend, even as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data pushed market odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike from 50% to 60%. The resilience came alongside a sharp pullback in futures leverage and a two-day surge of $904.6 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the largest such inflow since January.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts fell 7.5% from $57.7 billion on Sept. 3 to $53.44 billion by Sept. 7, according to market data. Funding rates also declined from roughly 0.0035% to 0.0008% over the same stretch, signaling that traders were unwinding leveraged positions ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index report.
The simultaneous decline in both metrics suggests broad deleveraging rather than a collapse in underlying demand. Spot prices slipped only about 2% while open interest contracted at a faster pace, indicating that traders were voluntarily reducing exposure rather than being forced out of positions. This dynamic could make Bitcoin less vulnerable to cascading liquidations if the inflation print surprises to the upside.
Funding rates measure periodic payments exchanged between long and short positions in perpetual futures markets. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting more aggressive bullish positioning. The drop toward near-zero territory means the cost of maintaining long positions has fallen sharply, easing the overheated conditions that often precede violent corrections.
Exchange reserves shrink below pre-hack levels
Bitcoin balances on tracked exchanges fell by approximately 8,073 BTC between Sept. 3 and Sept. 6 Total reserves declined from 2,711,825 BTC to 2,703,752 BTC, equivalent to roughly $637 million at a price near $79,000 per coin
The outflows occurred during a period of sideways price action rather than a rally, a pattern that often indicates investors moving coins into cold storage for long-term custody instead of preparing to sell. The decline has pushed exchange reserves below the level recorded on June 29, before the Coldcard hardware wallet hack triggered a flight-to-safety episode that saw investors deposit roughly 17,380 BTC onto exchanges over five days.
| Metric | Sept. 3 | Sept. 6-7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange reserves | 2,711,825 BTC | 2,703,752 BTC | -8,073 BTC |
| Open interest | $57.7 billion | $53.44 billion | -7.5% |
| Funding rate | ~0.0035% | 0.0008% | -77% |
Note: Figures reflect the most recent data available across tracked exchanges and derivatives venues.
The reversal means the additional supply that flowed onto exchanges during the Coldcard-related safety scramble has been effectively absorbed and withdrawn from immediately tradable balances. This tightening of exchange supply may help explain why Bitcoin has remained relatively insulated from renewed macro pressure following Friday’s jobs report, even as gold pulled back from its correlation with BTC near three-year highs.
ETF demand absorbs spot supply
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $730 million in net inflows on Sept. 3, the largest single-day tally since Jan. 14, when funds took in about $843.6 million. The cohort added another $174.6 million on Friday, bringing the two-day total to $904.6 million. The Friday inflows came as Bitcoin dipped following the strong employment report that lifted rate-hike expectations.
Spot ETFs typically acquire Bitcoin through market or over-the-counter transactions, with custodians holding the purchased assets. The combination of unusually strong ETF demand and simultaneous exchange outflows suggests newly acquired coins are being moved into custody arrangements. Meanwhile, the absence of a corresponding increase in exchange deposits indicates that immediately tradable BTC liquidity for sellers is becoming more constrained.
Broader crypto ETF flows have also remained positive. Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $218 million over the same week, their third consecutive weekly gain. Solana spot ETFs extended their positive streak to ten weeks with $6.18 million in inflows, while XRP and HYPE ETFs brought in $18.96 million and $12.27 million respectively.
QCP Capital noted that volatility has compressed significantly, with the market “waiting for clarity rather than pricing in strong directional views.” The firm added that investors appear “positioned for a directional break once the inflation data arrives.”
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said Bitcoin has “digested” last week’s macro volatility trigger, referring to the unexpected strength in nonfarm payrolls. Stronger employment data typically pushes yields higher and strengthens the dollar, conditions that often weigh on risk assets. “The market’s ability to absorb that repricing suggests investors are not treating a potential Fed hike as the only factor driving Bitcoin at current levels,” he said.
CoinGlass data showed roughly $178 million in cross-crypto liquidations over a recent 24-hour period, split evenly between long and short positions. Notable liquidity concentrations sat around $80,500 above spot and $78,800 below, levels that could act as short-term magnets for price action.
Scenario analysis ahead of CPI
Analysts surveyed by TradingEconomics expect a CPI reading of 334.9 points. If the inflation figure lands broadly in line with expectations, the reduced open interest in futures means the forced selling required to unwind speculative positions would be limited in scale. Bitcoin could trade between $79,500 and $82,300 in that base case.
A softer-than-expected CPI print would likely push September rate-hike odds lower and could allow Bitcoin to reclaim the $81,000 to $82,300 range. A decisive weekly close above $82,300 would shift the technical structure toward continuation and potentially open a new leg higher.
A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce hawkish expectations, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields. Bitcoin could break below $79,500, with the $76,000 to $77,000 zone emerging as the next focal area.
The critical technical threshold remains $83,000. A confirmed daily close above that level, followed by a successful retest, could extend upside targets toward $89,000 to $91,000 and potentially as high as $97,000 to $100,000. Failure to overcome resistance would keep the bearish structure intact, with downside exposure toward $65,000 and, in a deeper pullback, $50,000.
Once added, BigGo Finance appears first in Google Search Top Stories, so you get the broadest, most up-to-the-minute, and most comprehensive global financial news first.
Source: finance.biggo.com