Strategy Is Down More Than 50% in 12 Months. One Analyst Thinks the Stock Is About to Triple

Quick Read

• Mark Palmer’s $435 price target on MSTR implies 200% upside, as the stock shed 56% over 12 months tracking <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/forecast-update-for-bitcoin-07-09/” title=”Forecast update for Bitcoin – 07-09″>bitcoin lower.

• MSTR’s 56% drawdown dwarfs bitcoin-adjacent peers COIN (down 40%) and MARA (down 25%), yet MSTR carries the steepest implied upside across the group.

• MSTR surged 45% in the past month as bitcoin bounced 24%, but its $6.7B convertible debt and beta of 3.6 make position sizing critical.

• Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and MicroStrategy didn’t make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat MSTR. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.

Strategy currently trades at $142.80 while the average Wall Street price target sits at $225.93. That gap works out to roughly 58% of implied upside, and one bull is aiming much higher.

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is the former MicroStrategy, an enterprise analytics software company that reinvented itself as the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder. It now sits on 846,000 BTC, and its stock effectively trades as a leveraged proxy on the coin.

The gap between where MSTR trades and where analysts think it belongs matters because most of that spread traces back to a violent 12-month reset in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rather than any change in the underlying software business.

Bitcoin’s Reversal Set Off a 56% Drawdown

The stock has fallen 56.41% over the past 12 months, a decline that dwarfs both the S&P 500’s 18.65% gain and bitcoin’s own 27.78% slide over the same window. Strategy is essentially a levered bet on BTC, and when the coin fell to roughly $80,000, mark-to-market accounting did the rest.

Why Didn’t MSTR Make The Top 10 List?

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Q2 2026 showed the damage. EPS came in at -$24.45 versus $3.07 consensus, missing expectations by 895.3%. Revenue of $122.37M grew 6.9% YoY but came in 1.7% below estimates. The $8.22B net loss was driven almost entirely by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on digital assets. Q1 was worse, with a $12.54B net loss on a $14.46 billion write-down. The market is also pricing structural risk: $6.7B of convertible debt and $400.7M in quarterly preferred dividends against bitcoin carried at $49.7B versus a $63.9B cost basis.

Source: finance.yahoo.com