The cryptocurrency market is anticipating token unlocks totaling more than $250 million over the course of the next seven days. The most prominent are the linear unlocks from Solana and Dogecoin, two assets with precarious market structures. While SOL faces a much larger unlock of $61.83 million (465,770 SOL), DOGE is expected to release $14.69 million worth of tokens (95.89 million DOGE), according to data from Tokenomist and WuBlockchain.
Even though AVAX also receives a $11.65 million unlock, DOGE and SOL are particularly under pressure because of their technical positions. DOGE has been circling around $0.145, just above key support. All of the major moving averages (the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs) are above the current price, indicating a slight rebound in recent price action but a bearish overall trend.
At around 31, the RSI is heavily oversold and may be indicating a brief recovery. But there is a risk with the incoming token unlock. If more supply enters a market that is already devoid of strong bullish sentiment, DOGE may fall below $0.145 and perhaps retest the $0.12 level. The meme asset may experience a protracted bleed unless bulls quickly recover levels above $0.18.
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The situation with SOL is comparable. It is currently trading around $134, has already dropped below its 200 EMA and is struggling to maintain the $130 range. Momentum is weak, and the RSI is in the mid-30s. More downside risk is introduced by the enormous $61 million unlock that is planned for the coming days. In the absence of a strong recovery above $150-155, SOL may fall into the $120s, bringing down the mood of the entire market.
Even though these unlocks are partially priced in and known ahead of time, the risk is increased when they coincide with bearish price action and low market confidence. Both DOGE and SOL may experience faster sell-offs if current support levels collapse in the face of rising token circulation. Traders should keep an eye out for changes in volume and brief spikes in volatility as the unlock window goes on.
