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A blockbuster jobs report landed just hours after a Fed governor gave Bitcoin bulls their best news in months, and now two events before September 16 will determine whether the rally survives or collapses.
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Bitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC) had climbed to $82,240 early on Friday, its highest since May, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he would support holding rates steady this month. The Bitcoin price then fell about 2% to below $80,000 when the August jobs report showed the economy added 162,000 jobs against a consensus of 53,000.
That is the strongest monthly hiring since March, and it arrived one day after Waller’s comments had cut the odds of a September rate hike to roughly even. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000.
So could the Bitcoin price get $80,000 back before the Fed meets on September 16?
Why a Strong Jobs Number Hurt Bitcoin
The Bitcoin price fell on the report because a strong labor market gives the Fed room to raise rates. Waller’s case for a pause on Thursday rested on inflation cooling and hiring slowing, and a 162,000 print takes away the second half of that argument. TheBureau of Labor Statisticsalso revised July from a 23,000 loss to a 21,000 gain, so the summer was never as weak as the earlier data suggested.
Treasury yields rose in the same minute, with the 10-year at 4.80% and the 2-year at 4.40%, and higher yields pull money toward assets that pay interest, since a saver can now earn more on government debt for taking almost no risk. Bitcoin pays nothing, so it has to fall until it looks cheap enough to compete.
Moreover, the odds of a hike on September 16 had been near 67% before Waller spoke and close to 50% after. A jobs number three times the estimate could push them back up, and the Fed’s own view of the labor market was already firm, with Waller saying it was in satisfactory shape and Governor Michael Barr calling it stable earlier in the week.
What Is Still Holding the Bitcoin Price Up
The Bitcoin price still has the ETF buyers behind it. Bitcoin ETFs took in $730 million on September 3, their strongest single day since January, and roughly $456 million of bets against crypto were liquidated on Thursday as Waller’s remarks pushed the price higher. Those ETF buyers bought at prices above $80,000, and the level would hold only if they add on Friday’s dip.
Meanwhile, the wider labor picture is steadier than a single payroll number suggests. Initial joblessclaims were 206,000for the week ending August 29, inside the range that has held all year, and layoff announcements in August were the lowest for the month since 2022. So the Fed is looking at a labor market that is holding up without accelerating, which argues for a pause at least as much as for a hike.
However, Waller made that argument on Thursday, and the market had already priced it before the jobs report arrived. The report gives the hawks, led by Chair Kevin Warsh, their best data point since his Jackson Hole speech.
What Bitcoin Needs Before September 16
The Bitcoin price now has two events left before the Fed decides. The August CPI report comes out on September 11, and Waller said his support for a pause depends on inflation continuing to fall. Three-month core inflation had dropped from 4.76% in February to 3.05% through July, and if CPI confirms that trend the jobs number would carry less weight, because Waller’s argument was always about prices first.
TheCLARITY Actcloture vote on September 15 comes one day before the Fed decision. A cloture win would give Bitcoin a reason to hold $80,000 that does not depend on the rate outlook, since it would settle which regulator oversees the largest tokens.
Can Bitcoin Get $80,000 Back?
The Bitcoin price could reclaim $80,000 before the Fed meets if CPI on September 11 shows inflation still easing, because that would keep Waller’s pause alive and the jobs report would read as a labor market that can absorb a hold. The $730 million that entered Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday would also need to stay put on the dip.
However, if CPI comes in hot after a jobs number this strong, the hawks would have both halves of their case, and a hike on September 16 would move from possible to likely. The Bitcoin price could retest the $77,000 area it left on Wednesday, and a close below that would mean the Waller rally was short covering. CPI comes out at 8:30am on September 11, and it could settle which way the Fed leans.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who’s spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining “the cloud” was peak innovation). Since 2018, he’s written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think “gas fees” is a typo. When he’s not writing or staring at charts, Sam’s either: – Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) – At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god – Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
Source: 247wallst.com