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Bitcoin is being heavily influenced by moves in the stock market, and the current interest-rate outlook could also weigh on BTC, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said in an analysis posted on X.
McGlone said fed funds futures are pricing in about 0.5 percentage points of rate hikes over the next year. Under those conditions, BTC has typically shown weakness and then rebounded after futures-market expectations began shifting back toward easier monetary policy, he said. McGlone added that a stock-market decline is a key variable that could change monetary policy expectations, but it would be difficult for metals or crypto assets to rise on their own while equities are falling. He said risk assets, including BTC, are currently being driven largely by the direction of the stock market.