River: Bitcoin Could Easily Hit $840K in Five Years

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Bitcoin exchange platform River has published a model arguing that bitcoin’s price could climb to as much as $840,000 per coin within the next three to five years.

How ownership stands today

River notes that only about 4% of people worldwide own any bitcoin, and most of them hold small amounts.

Institutional investors, who manage half of global financial wealth, began meaningful allocations in 2024 after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Even so, River says investment advisors as a group hold just a 0.008% allocation to bitcoin.

That picture is shifting quickly.

River points out that 29 of the top 30 U.S. Registered Investment Advisors now own bitcoin, with a median allocation of 0.10% that grows each year.

Modeling the inflows

River’s forecast rests on two figures:

How much capital flows into bitcoin, and how far each dollar moves its market value.

Citing a Bitwise survey, River says the share of advisors allocating to crypto rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025.

Using a conservative range of 20-40% of portfolios making 2-4% allocations, River estimates $1.3-5.3 trillion of net inflows against a $333 trillion global asset base.

The price implications

River leans on research from economists Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen, who found that every $1 invested in U.S. stocks lifts total value by roughly $5.

The firm applies a more conservative 3x multiple to bitcoin. River wrote:

“At a 3X multiple, inflows of $1.3-5.3 trillion imply a bitcoin market value of $5.5-17.5 trillion. This equates to roughly $250,000 to $840,000 per coin.”

Capital inflows

River stressed that the model rests on simple assumptions that could prove wrong:

“Capital inflows to bitcoin (and bitcoin’s corresponding price) could fall short of, or exceed, the ranges indicated in this analysis.”

The company added a note on the wider backdrop:

“The financial landscape is becoming increasingly uncertain as a result of technological progress, geopolitical conflict, and fiscal fragility, among other factors.”

Source: bitbo.io