Bitcoin Is Back Above $80,000, But Fidelity Says the Bear Market May Not Be Over Yet

Fidelity believes that while Bitcoin‘s strong August rally and other factors offer reasons for optimism, none confirm that the bear market has ended.
ByChayanika Deka

Bitcoin, once again, climbed above $80,000 after surging by 4.3% on Friday. The recent strength comes as a welcome change, as the crypto market spent much of the third quarter under pressure before a sharp rally in late August changed the tone. BTC, for one, recorded its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, which led some investors to believe the bear market may have ended.

But there is no guarantee that’s the case yet

Possible November Bottom?

One factor in focus is Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle. The crypto asset has generally formed major bear-market bottoms and bull-market tops about four years apart. Since the previous bear market bottom came in November 2022, this pattern could point to another potential low around November 2026 if the cycle continues.

While Fidelity stressed that the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to repeat and that Bitcoin’s bottom may already have occurred in July, it still speculated that the cryptocurrency could fall again and set another low in November or later.

There are several catalysts that could also influence whether the crypto bear market ends. The financial giant pointed to more crypto-friendly regulation, changes in government monetary policy, the emergence of an unexpectedly popular crypto use case, and increasing institutional adoption. Price volatility is another factor the firm is watching.

Bitcoin’s previous bear markets have historically ended with a period of relatively low volatility followed by higher volatility and an upward expansion in price. Fidelity said the market experienced relatively low volatility from June through mid-August, which indicated that sellers may have become exhausted.

During that period, its analysis showed BTC and other crypto assets were trading toward the lower, or “value,” end of their historical price ranges. In late August, volatility increased sharply, with Bitcoin rising more than 25% during the third week of the month. Ethereum gained around 34% over the same period, while Solana rose 28%. Fidelity said this price behavior does not confirm that the bear market is over, but it is consistent with one possible historical pattern.

Source: cryptopotato.com