Ethereum Can Hit $10K in 2026 on French Banking Crisis — Arthur Hayes

Key Facts

• Arthur Hayes named Ethereum at $10,000, Ethena at $0.50 and Ether.fi at $2 as Maelstrom’s speculative end-2026 positions, with a structural Bitcoin long anchoring the portfolio.
• His recent essay focused on the implosion of French banks, whose three global systemically important lenders account for roughly 20% of repo lending.
• Their retreat would force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, Hayes argued, with the euro-yen exchange rate serving as the early warning that the sequence has begun.

Arthur Hayes set a $10,000 price target on Ethereum (ETH) in an essay published Wednesday, alongside targets of $0.50 on Ethena (ENA), and $2 on Ether.fi (ETHFI), describing all three as speculative bets for the end of 2026.
To reach these targets, ETH would need to roughly quadruple from $2,508 at the time of writing, while ENA would need to roughly triple from $0.17 and ETHFI to more than triple from $0.59. Hayes, chief investment officer of family office Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, wrote that a structural Bitcoin (BTC) long anchors the portfolio.

Why Hayes Says French Banks Will Force the Fed to Print

The targets rest on an argument about dollar liquidity that serves as the essay’s main topic: the implosion of French banks and their departure from repo lending.

Foreign investors hold about 71% of French bank debt, he wrote, and Japanese institutions instructed to repatriate capital have become sellers of French government bonds. If the ECB declines to step in, he expects the Banque de France to break ranks, print reserves, and buy the debt itself.

Citing the US Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, Hayes wrote that BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, and Société Générale together account for roughly 20% of repo lending. If they pull back, he argued, the New York Fed must expand its Reserve Management Purchases to keep the Treasury market funded.

The Fed already monetizes 39% of Treasury bill issuance, up from zero in late 2024, according to his essay. He put the average monthly balance-sheet increase since the program began at about $22 billion, and said it could approach $100 billion a month if Bessent increases long-end Treasury purchases.

Euro-Yen as the Early Warning Signal

Hayes described the euro-yen exchange rate as the one number that flags when that sequence is starting, forecasting a fall from about 185 to 140 or below by June next year.

He characterized US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as “Buffalo Bill” Bessent — “a serial killer of supposed US allies whose currencies need to appreciate vs. the dollar” — noting that Bessent sold euros and bought yen through the Exchange Stabilization Fund during a recent intervention.

“Let the EURJPY be your advanced smoke alarm that French banks are about to go kaput and the Fed will print to ensure the well-functioning of the treasury market,” Hayes wrote.

BTC traded at $81,476 at the time of writing, up 5.6% over 24 hours, with ETH at $2,508, up 5.2%

Read More: Debasement Trade Begins, Crypto Bear Market Ends: Bitcoin Charts Path to $100K

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