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Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 threshold on Thursday, propelled by dovish signals from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and signs of a cooling labor market, sending US crypto-linked stocks sharply higher. Strategy, Robinhood, and Circle all posted gains exceeding 10%, with Robinhood surging more than 15% after its proprietary blockchain ranked first in network revenue. Markets lowered the probability of a September rate hike from 63.2% to 50.4%, while a weakening US Dollar Index provided additional support for risk assets. Attention now turns to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, which will be pivotal in determining the Fed’s policy trajectory and the sustainability of crypto market momentum.
Key Elements
Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 milestone on Thursday (September 3), driven by a combination of dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and signs of a cooling labor market, triggering a broad rally in US crypto-linked equities. Strategy (MSTR), which holds a substantial Bitcoin position on its balance sheet, climbed more than 12% intraday, while online trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) soared over 15%, making the sector one of the day’s standout performers.
The primary catalyst behind the rally was public remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Speaking at a virtual event, Waller indicated that recent data finally showed signs of the “disinflationary process” resuming, and that if upcoming indicators over the next two weeks continued this trend, he would lean toward supporting a rate hold at the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This stance contrasted sharply with the hawkish position of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who had previously expressed concerns about inflation, prompting markets to rapidly scale back bets on a September rate hike.
According to CME FedWatch data, traders’ expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in September plunged from 63.2% the previous day to 50.4%. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims rose more than expected, further corroborating signs of labor market cooling and reducing the urgency for continued monetary tightening.
The cryptocurrency market was the first to react to this shift in policy expectations. Bitcoin rose more than 5% over the past 24 hours to reach $80,800 (approximately NT$2.6 million); Ether also strengthened, climbing over 4.8% to approximately $2,494 (around NT$79,000). Notably, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion (about NT$110 billion) in August, marking the largest single-month inflow in over a year and providing solid capital-flow support for Bitcoin’s current rally.
Crypto-linked stocks posted even more dramatic gains. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) surged 13%, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) climbed over 8%, and crypto miners rallied across the board, with Bit Digital (BTBT) up 11% and MARA Holdings (MARA) up 10%. These companies’ revenues, asset values, and stock prices are highly correlated with cryptocurrency prices, and their share price swings tend to be amplified when Bitcoin breaks through key levels.
Robinhood’s performance was particularly striking. Beyond benefiting from the broader crypto market recovery, strong metrics from its proprietary blockchain business served as an additional catalyst. According to DeFiLlama, Robinhood Chain generated approximately $4.32 million (about NT$140 million) in revenue over the past 24 hours, ranking first among major blockchain networks, surpassing Solana’s $3.98 million (approximately NT$130 million), Hyperliquid L1’s $1.9 million (around NT$60 million), and Ethereum’s $1.75 million (about NT$55 million). This data reinforced market confidence in the company’s ability to commercialize its crypto operations.
A weakening US dollar provided another layer of support for risk assets. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell approximately 0.5% to its lowest level since August 26. The Japanese yen strengthened significantly amid market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise rates in September and reports of suspected government intervention, further pressuring the dollar. Market participants widely view a weaker dollar as enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a monetary hedge, adding extra momentum for digital assets and related equities.
In Asian foreign exchange markets, the South Korean won closed at ₩1,359.3 per US dollar in the previous session, its weakest closing level in one year and two months. Market participants noted that dollar weakness and persistent intervention warnings from US and Japanese authorities regarding yen depreciation kept the won consolidating in the upper ₩1,350 range. However, importer settlement demand and foreign exchange purchases for overseas stock investments limited further won appreciation.
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming US August nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts view this data as a critical inflection point for the Fed’s September policy decision. If employment data comes in stronger than expected, it could reverse the current dollar weakness and pressure the crypto rally; conversely, if the data shows further labor market cooling, the risk-asset rebound could extend.
Institutional views on crypto-linked stocks remain divided. According to market analysis tools, Wall Street’s implied upside for Strategy’s price target stands at a substantial 74.6%, far exceeding Coinbase’s 2.94% and Robinhood’s 2.11%. This reflects the view that Strategy, with its large Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet, is seen as the most leveraged investment vehicle in a scenario of continued Bitcoin price appreciation. However, some analysts caution that the high volatility of cryptocurrency markets means the downside risk for related equities should not be overlooked, and investors need to closely monitor the Fed’s policy trajectory and subsequent macroeconomic data developments.
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Source: finance.biggo.com