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Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin quickly climbed back above $80,000 in less than three months
Expectations for formal crypto rules have supported sentiment
A Sept. 15 vote could shape the next leg for prices
Bitcoin has turned higher since mid-August, rebounding to the 111 million won range for the first time in nearly three months. Stronger appetite for risk assets after the U.S. Treasury announced expanded long-term bond buybacks helped channel liquidity into digital assets and amplify the rally. Expectations for a more formal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies have also buoyed sentiment. The fate of the Clarity Act, a crypto market-structure bill pending in the U.S. Senate, is emerging as a key driver of Bitcoin’s next move.
Back above 100 million won as rally holds
According to Upbit, Bitcoin was at 108.91 million won as of the 9 a.m. close on Sept. 1. After reaching 111 million won on Aug. 27, it has held in the 108 million won range.
Bitcoin last traded in the 111 million won range on May 26. It rose for five straight trading days from Aug. 23 through Aug. 27, gaining 4% from 106.74 million won. The rebound was swift. After falling to 89.12 million won on Aug. 14, Bitcoin recovered the 90 million won level three days later on Aug. 17 and reached 100 million won on Aug. 20.
The recovery has also stood out in dollar terms. Bitcoin has recently traded in the upper-$70,000 range. It climbed sharply from mid-August, moved above $73,000 on Aug. 21 and briefly touched $80,000 intraday on Aug. 25. That was the first time it traded at $80,000 since May. Before the rebound, Bitcoin had been trading in the $60,000 range and fell to the $58,000 range on July 1.
The rally gathered momentum after the U.S. Treasury announced on Aug. 19 that it would expand buybacks of long-term Treasuries. The Treasury said at the time that it would more than double the buyback cap to support market liquidity. Long-term Treasury yields fell immediately afterward, boosting demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Yields rebounded quickly, but buying of Bitcoin continued. Market participants also see demand shifting to Bitcoin as concerns over U.S. fiscal stability spur interest in hedges against a weaker dollar. The token’s fixed supply, which governments cannot expand at will, has drawn renewed attention.
Regulatory optimism adds to the rally
Expectations for formal crypto rules also added to the advance. On Aug. 18, one day before the Treasury’s bond-buyback announcement, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled a crypto rule proposal. It sets standards for companies seeking to use token issuance to raise funds. The proposal was widely seen as a stopgap after progress on the Clarity Act, which would classify digital assets as securities or commodities, was delayed. Even with the bill stalled, continued work on crypto rules helped lift market expectations.
The policy push intensified the next day. On Aug. 19, as news of the Treasury buybacks emerged, President Donald Trump met U.S. crypto-industry executives at the White House and urged swift passage of the Clarity Act. The bill also lays out how oversight would be divided between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The heads of both agencies attended the meeting.
Bitcoin’s rally also gained traction as the sharp rebound triggered additional buying. After prices jumped following the Treasury’s expanded buybacks and Trump’s White House meeting with industry executives, investors who had borrowed and sold digital assets on expectations of further declines rushed to buy back Bitcoin. The initial rise prompted more buying, accelerating the advance in a short period.
Focus turns to Clarity Act vote
Funds flowing into the market also rose sharply during the rally. According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the U.S. posted net inflows for nine straight trading days from Aug. 17 through Aug. 27. Total inflows reached $3.4444 billion. The biggest single-day intake came on Aug. 20, when $606.3 million flowed in. Bitcoin’s rebound was accompanied by continued ETF inflows.
Investor sentiment has also improved steadily. The Fear & Greed Index compiled by data firm Alternative hit 73 on Aug. 28, a level classified as greed. A reading closer to 100 signals more overheated sentiment. The index stood at 31, or fear, on Aug. 17, then jumped to 72 on Aug. 22. In a little over 10 days, market mood swung sharply from fear to greed. It was the first time the index had been in the 70s since October last year. At that time, Bitcoin traded in the 170 million won range in South Korea and around $120,000 overseas.
Bitcoin’s next direction will likely hinge on whether the U.S. Senate passes the Clarity Act in a vote scheduled for Sept. 15. If the bill passes, clearer rules for digital-asset trading could influence institutional investor appetite. The Clarity Act passed the House in July last year and the Senate Banking Committee in May, but failed to clear the full Senate in early August. “The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold these gains,” a crypto-industry official said. “The Clarity Act will affect not only Bitcoin, but also altcoins.”
Park Si-on, Hankyung.com reporter ushire908@hankyung.com
Source: en.bloomingbit.io