Bitcoin Up 25% in August, But the Real Battle Lies at $81,000

深潮TechFlow特邀专栏作者
2026-09-02 11:30
This article is about 7900 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes
This report provides a comprehensive breakdown of the three forces driving the rally, the support levels that must hold, the trends to monitor, and the five key factors that will determine whether September can sustain the momentum.
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• Core Thesis: Bitcoin rose approximately 25% in August 2026, marking its strongest August performance since 2017. This rally was jointly driven by the Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program, advancing crypto policy in Washington, and mass short liquidations. The market is currently at a critical inflection point, with the $81,000 to $82,000 range serving as the key dividing line between a trend reversal and a bear market rally.
• Key Elements:
  1. The Treasury raised the cap on buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries to at least $4 billion, while signaling the potential deployment of approximately $1 trillion from the TGA — reinforcing the narrative for a debasement trade.
  2. Roughly $1.4 billion in BTC short positions were liquidated, marking one of the largest short squeezes in crypto history; August ETF inflows exceeded $3.05 billion, the strongest month since October 2025.
  3. Price has reclaimed both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, sitting 20% above the 200-week MA (~$65,500) and 46% above the realized price (~$53,000), currently consolidating in the $77,000 to $79,000 range.
  4. RSI briefly surged above 80, hitting its highest level of the year; perpetual futures funding rates are running at an annualized ~10%, with open interest around $54 billion — 23% below last year’s peak. Derivatives structure is heated but not overheated.
  5. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed back above 0.03 for the first time in nearly four months, with ETH reclaiming the $2,000 level; Solana recorded an all-time high of 1.17 billion transactions in a single week, with its DEX volume share rising to 40%.
  6. Key September watchpoints: 65% probability of a rate hike at the FOMC meeting, the CLARITY Act vote (passage probability ~13%), and whether ETF inflows can absorb daily short-term holder profit-taking exceeding $500 million.
  7. The cycle clock indicates the market is approximately ten months from the October 2025 top, positioning it within a historical bottoming window; MVRV is approaching cycle-bottom levels, with signs of seller exhaustion resonating alongside accumulation by large holders — a signal last seen at the 2020 and 2022 bottoms.

Original Compilation: TechFlow

TechFlow Insights: Bitcoin just recorded its strongest August since 2017, gaining roughly 25% in a single month. But is this rally a trend reversal or just a short squeeze? This report highlights several key observations that must be confirmed in September, offering valuable reference points for both traders and long-term allocators.

• August catalysts were in place. The Treasury’s expanded buyback program drove Bitcoin up roughly 25%, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024, coinciding precisely with the historical window when previous bear markets concluded.
• The rally has underlying support. Record short liquidations ignited the move, but open interest sits at only half of the October 2025 peak, funding rates are not crowded, and $3.05 billion in ETF inflows confirm genuine spot demand beneath the surface.
• September will be decisive. Watch the $76,000–$78,000 support zone, the persistence of ETF flows, and long-end yields. The $81,000–$82,000 level is the dividing line between a trend reversal and a bear market rally. Any pullback should be viewed as a late-cycle buy-the-dip opportunity, not a reason to exit.

August was the month the market stopped debating the bottom and started trading the turn. The U.S. Treasury’s decision to at least double its long-term Treasury buyback program was interpreted by the market as a quiet easing, giving the green light to a debasement trade. Bitcoin surged nearly 12% within 24 hours and is up roughly 25% month-to-date. This is the best month since November 2024 and the best August since 2017. Equally important as the magnitude is the timing: this rally occurred as the cycle clock has moved deep into the window when previous bear markets historically bottomed, and the bottoming signals flagged in our Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Indicator have already been flashing.

In this report, we outline which levels must hold, which developments must follow through, and what signals will tell us this is the inflection point for a formal exit from the bear market, rather than one final position squeeze.

Three Forces Behind Bitcoin’s 25% August Rally

1) Liquidity Did the Heavy Lifting

The Treasury has raised the size cap for each liquidity support operation in the 10- to 30-year Treasury sector to at least $4 billion. The market’s initial reaction was textbook: the 30-year yield, which had just hit a 19-year high the day before, fell 10 basis points, the dollar weakened, and gold and Bitcoin rose in tandem. Their simultaneous movement is a classic sign of the debasement trade. But the truce in the bond market lasted less than a trading day: long-end yields quickly rebounded, erasing the relief from the announcement within a day, forcing the Treasury to double down. Bessent first signaled an increase in operation size to over $4 billion, then went further, proposing to use roughly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account (TGA) as a much larger buyback channel. This sequence of actions suggests investors doubt the government’s ability to control its own borrowing costs, and for this reason, this moment may mark the beginning of a new regime, not a one-off event. Interest payments now account for over 20% of federal tax revenue (U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 2026 baseline projections), which is precisely the “fiscal dominance and scarce assets” logic at work: pressure falls on cash and bonds. Bitcoin, gold, and silver have historically benefited from this environment.

2) Washington Adds More Fuel to the Crypto Market

Within just one week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed the “Crypto Asset Regulation” (allowing token issuances of up to $75 million per year without full registration), President Trump met with crypto industry executives alongside the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairs, urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act before the September 15 vote, and indicated that the CFTC is bringing Hyperliquid into the U.S. regulatory framework in a fully compliant and lawful manner.

3) Market Positioning and Flows Amplified the Gains

Approximately $1.4 billion in BTC shorts were liquidated, marking one of the largest short squeezes in crypto history. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $3.05 billion in August, their strongest month since October 2025, with roughly $1 billion absorbed in the first two weeks. Investor sentiment shifted from fear to greed in less than a month—the sharpest reversal this year. The rally was broad-based: ETH reclaimed the $2,000 level and is now oscillating around the $2,400–$2,500 range; SOL surged from the low-$70s, where it had been consolidating for over a month, to $110; and Hyperliquid jumped roughly 25% on the back of the CFTC’s remarks.

Bitcoin Has Broken Through Resistance, But the Hard Fight Begins at $81,000

Trend Structure: Repaired, But Facing a Challenge

Bitcoin is currently well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, trading roughly 20% and 46% above its two long-term anchors: the 200-week moving average near $65,500 and the average investor cost basis of $53,000, also known as the realized price. Price is now testing the 50-week moving average near $81,000, and the $81,000–$82,000 zone is precisely where price was rejected multiple times earlier this year, sending it back to the $57,000–$58,000 lows. The $82,500 level also represents the cost basis for U.S. Bitcoin ETF holders, which is critical: if ETF holders can maintain their positions above this line, it signals the market’s overall expectations for Bitcoin’s trajectory. Multiple factors converge here, making this the single most important resistance level on the chart. A weekly close above it will be the dividing line between a trend reversal and a bear market rally. After touching approximately $81,500, price has been consolidating between $77,000 and $79,000.

Momentum: Strong, But Too Hot to Chase

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI, a momentum indicator measuring whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100) rose to the low-80s last week, its highest reading of the year. When a market has just broken out of a range, extreme RSI readings typically reflect the power of the initial move, and price often digests this through sideways consolidation. This means the easy part of the move is over: buying here means paying range-top prices just below the $81,000–$82,000 resistance level. A better entry point would be waiting for a pullback to the $76,000–$78,000 support zone rather than chasing at these highs.

Immediate Support Is the $76,000–$78,000 Breakout Zone

After serving as key resistance throughout the summer, this zone has now flipped to support. Holding here keeps the breakout structure intact. Below that sits $68,500 (the short-term holder cost basis, which distinguishes recent buyers in profit from those at a loss), then $65,000, followed by the 200-week moving average at $60,000. To the upside, $81,000–$82,000 is the level to overcome; once breached, $85,000 opens up quickly, and beyond that, the year-to-date high of $98,000 comes back into play.

Derivatives: Warm, But Not Overheated

Perpetual swap funding rates are running at an annualized rate of around 10%—positive, but far below the readings typically seen in crowded long markets. Futures open interest tells a similar story: currently around $54 billion, it has recovered from its yearly lows alongside the rally, but remains 23% below the $70 billion peak at last year’s bull market top and sits in the lower end of its yearly range. Euphoria is slowly returning, which is a positive signal. Since the breakout, Bitcoin’s advance has been driven primarily by spot demand rather than leverage, leaving room for further upside without the fragile, crowded positioning that characterized the previous cycle top. What the market needs now is continued follow-through from spot demand, and a calmer derivatives structure is exactly the foundation we want it to build upon.

Breadth: Quality Assets Are Leading—This Is What a Sustainable Turn Looks Like

The ETH/BTC ratio (a measure of Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin) has returned above 0.03 for the first time in nearly four months. This level is significant: it has long served as the floor for this ratio, fell to 0.024 during the spring selloff, and was reclaimed in mid-June, indicating that sellers can no longer suppress it. Since then, ETH has broken through the zone where its April rally failed, and SOL’s advance has been accompanied by improving on-chain activity. Capital rotating into the strongest major coins is how recoveries begin, not how bear market rallies end.

Five Factors That Will Determine Whether August’s Rally Extends into September

The Fed-Treasury Tug of War

The core contradiction lies in the fact that the two arms of U.S. policy are pulling in opposite directions: the Treasury’s expanded buybacks, once operational, begin easing the long end, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still discussing rate hikes. With core PCE coming in slightly above expectations and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 28 more hawkish than anticipated, traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. However, a hawkish Fed cannot offset the ever-widening deficit and growing questions about its independence, which seems to be precisely why the market is beginning to reprice the debasement trade. The scoreboard for this battle will be the 30-year yield once buyback operations commence.

September 15: The CLARITY Act Vote

Polymarket assigns roughly a 13% probability of passage this year, so failure is fully priced in, while passage would be an upside surprise. The 2024 election serves as the template: binary catalysts move prices fastest when odds shift, not when the outcome is realized. Regardless of the result, the SEC and CFTC rulemaking paths are progressing in parallel as a backup option, though they cannot substitute for legislation.

Sustained ETF Inflows and Potential Profit-Taking

August’s $3.05 billion in ETF inflows occurred with Bitcoin roughly 35% below its all-time high, indicating that investors deployed capital at a meaningful discount rather than chasing at highs. The countervailing force exists as well: after a roughly 25% rally in one month, the short-term holder breakeven line has risen rapidly and is now approaching the spot price, with price also hovering just above the 200-day moving average and the breakout zone. This is precisely the region where investors lacking long-term conviction choose to take profits—and it’s already happening: since the breakout, short-term holders have been transferring over $500 million of profitable BTC to exchanges daily, roughly four times the pace seen earlier in August and the heaviest profit-taking since December of last year. September’s flow data will tell us which side prevails: if ETF demand can consistently absorb these profit-taking flows, pullbacks will be shallow; if demand fades after sentiment shifts, the pullback to the downside will come sooner.

On-Chain Activity Is Warming Up

This rally is not just a macro and positioning story—it is underpinned by a genuine recovery in network usage, with multiple chains showing fundamental catalysts that align with price action.

Ethereum’s Valuation Is Finally Catching Up to Fundamentals

ETH has reclaimed the $2,000 level, and the ETH/BTC ratio has returned above 0.03 after bottoming in mid-June. The confirmation level is around $2,450, where April’s rally failed, and ETH is currently trading around this level. The pattern to remember is that ETH tends to consolidate sideways for months before making concentrated moves in short bursts, as seen in both the 2024 and 2025 summers. Tactically, this makes it the most explosive asset when the market turns. The underlying fundamentals support this move, a divergence we broke down in our Ethereum H1 2026 Earnings Analysis: as speculation has receded, fee revenue is down 69% year-over-year, but usage continues to accumulate. Monthly active addresses are up 15% year-over-year to 8.4 million, smart contract deployments are up 74% to over 1.3 million, and stablecoins on Ethereum have grown 22% to approximately $156 billion, while capturing roughly 47% of the $34 billion tokenized real-world asset market. Despite accounting for only 32% of total altcoin market cap, the network still controls 54% of all crypto total value locked (TVL, the total value of assets deposited across its various applications); its economic weight is running far ahead of its valuation. Institutions are positioning around this gap: two institutional initiatives launched in July to bring large investors into Ethereum’s infrastructure, and since July, on a market-cap-adjusted basis, ETH ETF inflows have exceeded those of Bitcoin (Bloomberg, August 2026).

Solana’s Governance Creates Scarcity Amid Record Activity

The network recorded its strongest single-week DEX activity in over six months (DEXs are platforms where traders can directly exchange crypto assets without centralized intermediaries), with weekly spot DEX volume breaking above $20 billion, indicating market activity has returned. It also set an all-time high for weekly transaction counts: 1.17 billion in the second week of August, roughly 20% higher than the volume during the week of the Trump coin launch. Solana now accounts for 40% of spot DEX volume across all blockchains, up approximately 30% year-over-year, a point we discussed in our latest Solana H1 2026 Earnings Analysis. On the governance front, SIMD-550 was passed in the form of SGP-002, which will halve the network’s annual inflation rate and bring Solana to a terminal inflation rate of 1.5% by 2029, roughly three years ahead of the original schedule. The near-term cost is lower staking yields, but similar reduction upgrades on other chains have historically been viewed as positive supply signals, and part of the intent behind this reduction is precisely to push capital out of staking and into Solana’s on-chain economy, where activity is already recovering. Our full analysis of the Solana SIMD-550 governance proposal details these trade-offs.

Hyperliquid’s Biggest Revenue Catalyst Has Not Yet Arrived

The world’s largest decentralized perpetual exchange made headlines as the CFTC moves to bring it under the U.S. regulatory framework, but fundamental changes are also occurring beneath the news. In the third week of August, it recorded its highest weekly revenue since the week Bitcoin hit its all-time high last October, taking in over $24 million—a figure exceeding the combined revenue generated by the next three largest perpetual exchanges over the preceding two months. The chain is also on track for its busiest month since October 2025, with August volume approaching the midpoint of the $200 billion range. Looking ahead, the bigger catalyst may still be in front of us. As discussed in our recently published Hyperliquid H1 2026 Earnings Analysis, under agreements reached in May with Circle and Coinbase, roughly 90% of the Treasury yields on the over $5.4 billion in USDC held on Hyperliquid will be redirected to the protocol for HYPE buybacks. By our estimates, this could generate $135 million to $160 million in annualized revenue, approaching 18% of current core revenue (this is a projection based on current conditions; actual results may differ). The first payment is expected to arrive in early October.

The Cycle Clock: If It Weakens, It Will Be the Late Stage of the Bear Market

We are now roughly ten months from the October 2025 top, firmly within the window in which Bitcoin has historically completed its bottoming process. Bottoming indicators have also been flashing for several weeks: the Market Value to Real

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