PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket “OpenAI’s Astra being released before September 11” has risen to 86%, up 41% in 24 hours; the probability of it being released before September 15 has risen to 91%, up 29% in 24 hours.

If OpenAI publicly releases “Astra” before the specified date, or releases a product confirmed by official or credible media to be the same model as the previously announced “Astra,” the event will settle as “Yes,” otherwise it will be “No.” Eligible models can use names such as Astra, Astra 1, Astra 6, GPT-6 Astra, etc., and can be renamed upon release. Models like GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 will only count if confirmed to be the same model as the previously mentioned Astra. The model must be publicly accessible, including public testing or open waitlists; closed testing and private access do not count. Settlement is primarily based on official information from OpenAI and references consensus reports from credible media.